Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Premier League · England

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 20 September at 14:00. Originally planned for Saturday 19 September at 15:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Manchester City

5–3full timeHT 3–2 · 2H 2–1

Sunderland

What Janus-12 said

66%

Over 2.5 yellow cards

80% success over 40 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 34 %

A prediction at 66 % fails 34 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 4 bookmakers

Bet offered: Over 2.5 yellow cards

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 17:03.

Sealed on 20/09, 14:00announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 46 matches in this league
62%✓
78% success over 40 matches in this league
76%✓
74% success over 46 matches in this league
90%✓
70% success over 46 matches in this league
79%✓
67% success over 3 matches in this league
54%✓
65% success over 46 matches in this league
77%✓
62% success over 37 matches in this league
52%✗
59% success over 37 matches in this league
66%✓
46% success over 46 matches in this league
71%✓

Premier League

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	5	3	1	1	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	+6	9
5	Leeds United	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Newcastle United	5	2	2	1	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Ipswich Town	5	2	0	3	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	AFC Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	-3	2
20	Tottenham Hotspur	5	0	2	3	-6	2

What we announced

8/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Over 2.5 yellow cards66%lost
- 1 yellow cards for 28 fouls given.
Under 11.5 corners62%held
- 11 corners in total, with 55% possession for Manchester City.
Under 5.5 yellow cards76%held
Manchester City or draw90%held
- Manchester City took the lead in the 43rd minute and never let it go.
- Manchester City took control early: opening goal in the 9th minute.
Over 7.5 corners79%held
Manchester City ahead at half-time54%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-2 at half-time, 9′ Manchester City, 12′ Sunderland, 29′ Manchester City, 33′ Sunderland, 43′ Manchester City.
At least 1 goal before half-time77%held
Over 3.5 yellow cards52%lost
Under 4.5 yellow cards66%held
Manchester City to win71%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableManchester City 1st, Sunderland 14th (Premier League)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Manchester City (1-0)
During the match12′ equaliser, Sunderland (1-1)
During the match29′ Manchester City retake the lead (2-1)
During the match33′ equaliser, Sunderland (2-2)
During the match43′ Manchester City retake the lead (3-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-2
During the match57′ Manchester City go 2 goals up (4-2)
During the match81′ last goal, Manchester City

What it changes

In this league, “Over 2.5 yellow cards” goes from 80% to 78% success rate, over 41 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Manchester City on the left, Sunderland on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Dayann Methalie8'
9'Goal · Enzo Fernández
Goal · Brian Brobbey (assist : Enzo Le Fée)12'
29'Goal · Rayan Cherki (assist : Antoine Semenyo)
Goal · Brian Brobbey (assist : Thomas Meunier)33'
43'Goal · Antoine Semenyo (assist : Marc Guehi)

Half-time3 – 2

Second half

57'Goal · Antoine Semenyo
Goal · Brian Brobbey (assist : Nilson Angulo)59'
Substitution · Nilson Angulo ⇄ Malick Fofana60'
Substitution · Noah Sadiki ⇄ Wilson Isidor68'
75'Substitution · Iliman Ndiaye ⇄ Jeremy Doku
Substitution · Thomas Meunier ⇄ Trai Hume79'
81'Goal · Erling Haaland (assist : Josko Gvardiol)
83'VAR: Goal confirmed · Erling Haaland
85'Substitution · Rayan Cherki ⇄ Nico O'Reilly

What we announced

8/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Over 2.5 yellow cards66%lost
- 1 yellow cards for 28 fouls given.
Under 11.5 corners62%held
- 11 corners in total, with 55% possession for Manchester City.
Under 5.5 yellow cards76%held
Manchester City or draw90%held
- Manchester City took the lead in the 43rd minute and never let it go.
- Manchester City took control early: opening goal in the 9th minute.
Over 7.5 corners79%held
Manchester City ahead at half-time54%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-2 at half-time, 9′ Manchester City, 12′ Sunderland, 29′ Manchester City, 33′ Sunderland, 43′ Manchester City.
At least 1 goal before half-time77%held
Over 3.5 yellow cards52%lost
Under 4.5 yellow cards66%held
Manchester City to win71%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableManchester City 1st, Sunderland 14th (Premier League)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Manchester City (1-0)
During the match12′ equaliser, Sunderland (1-1)
During the match29′ Manchester City retake the lead (2-1)
During the match33′ equaliser, Sunderland (2-2)
During the match43′ Manchester City retake the lead (3-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-2
During the match57′ Manchester City go 2 goals up (4-2)
During the match81′ last goal, Manchester City

What it changes

In this league, “Over 2.5 yellow cards” goes from 80% to 78% success rate, over 41 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Premier League

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes