Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Super League (Switzerland) · Switzerland

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Luzern

2–4full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 1–2

Basel

What Janus-12 said

74%

Luzern or draw

70% success over 27 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 26 %

A prediction at 74 % fails 26 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Luzern or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 15:11.

Sealed on 13/09, 15:30announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Super League

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	9	8	1	0	+20	25
2	Young Boys	9	5	4	0	+13	19
3	Sion	9	6	1	2	+9	19
4	Basel	9	4	1	4	0	13
5	St. Gallen	9	4	1	4	-3	13
6	Luzern	9	3	3	3	-1	12
7	Zurich	9	3	2	4	-6	11
8	Servette	9	3	1	5	-2	10
9	Thun	9	3	1	5	-8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	2	2	5	-11	8
11	Vaduz	9	2	0	7	-3	6
12	Lausanne	9	1	3	5	-8	6

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Luzern or draw74%lost
- Luzern chased the score almost all match: Basel scored as early as the 4th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Luzern had 19 shots against 17, for 2 goals against 4.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLuzern 6th, Basel 4th (Super League)

During the match

During the match1′ opening goal, Luzern (1-0)
During the match4′ equaliser, Basel (1-1)
During the match42′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match56′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-3)
During the match66′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-4)
During the match84′ Basel go 2 goals up (2-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Luzern or draw” goes from 70.4% to 67.9% success rate, over 28 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Luzern on the left, Basel on the right.

First half

1'Goal · Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb (assist : Rúben Dantas Fernandes)
Goal · Žan Celar (assist : Kazeem Olaigbe)4'
Goal · Philip Otele (assist : Xherdan Shaqiri)42'

Half-time1 – 2

Second half

52'Yellow card · Bung Hua Freimann
Goal · Xherdan Shaqiri (assist : Kazeem Olaigbe)56'
Yellow card · Xherdan Shaqiri57'
Yellow card · Philip Otele58'
60'Substitution · Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb ⇄ Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga
60'Substitution · Mio Zimmermann ⇄ Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
60'Substitution · Tyron Owusu ⇄ Aurelio Oehlers
Substitution · Philip Otele ⇄ Aaron Malouda61'
Substitution · Kevin Ruegg ⇄ Clément Michelin61'
Goal · Xherdan Shaqiri (assist : Kazeem Olaigbe)66'
Substitution · Xherdan Shaqiri ⇄ giacomo koloto72'
Substitution · Jonas harder ⇄ Ludwig Thorell72'
72'Substitution · Daniel Mikołajewski ⇄ Nando Toggenburger
83'Substitution · Matteo Di Giusto ⇄ Lars Villiger
84'Goal · Lars Villiger (assist : Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga)
Substitution · Žan Celar ⇄ Becir Omeragic85'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Luzern or draw74%lost
- Luzern chased the score almost all match: Basel scored as early as the 4th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Luzern had 19 shots against 17, for 2 goals against 4.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLuzern 6th, Basel 4th (Super League)

During the match

During the match1′ opening goal, Luzern (1-0)
During the match4′ equaliser, Basel (1-1)
During the match42′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match56′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-3)
During the match66′ turnaround, Basel go ahead (1-4)
During the match84′ Basel go 2 goals up (2-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Luzern or draw” goes from 70.4% to 67.9% success rate, over 28 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Super League

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes