Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Super League (Switzerland) · Switzerland

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

St. Gallen

3–4full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 3–3

Thun

What Janus-12 said

78%

St. Gallen or draw

67% success over 9 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 22 %

A prediction at 78 % fails 22 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: St. Gallen or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 30/08, 09:33.

Sealed on 30/08, 15:30announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

44% success over 9 matches in this league
51%✗

Super League

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	9	8	1	0	+20	25
2	Young Boys	9	5	4	0	+13	19
3	Sion	9	6	1	2	+9	19
4	Basel	9	4	1	4	0	13
5	St. Gallen	9	4	1	4	-3	13
6	Luzern	9	3	3	3	-1	12
7	Zurich	9	3	2	4	-6	11
8	Servette	9	3	1	5	-2	10
9	Thun	9	3	1	5	-8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	2	2	5	-11	8
11	Vaduz	9	2	0	7	-3	6
12	Lausanne	9	1	3	5	-8	6

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

St. Gallen or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: St. Gallen had 25 shots against 7, for 3 goals against 4.
- The chances were on the right side: 2.91 expected goals for St. Gallen against 1.26, and the score says the opposite.
St. Gallen to win51%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSt. Gallen 5th, Thun 9th (Super League)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Thun (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match47′ Thun go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match90′ last goal, St. Gallen

What it changes

In this league, “St. Gallen or draw” goes from 66.7% to 60% success rate, over 10 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

St. Gallen on the left, Thun on the right.

First half

Goal · B. Labeau9'
Yellow card · T. Strannegard42'
Yellow card · N. Steffen45+2'

Half-time0 – 1

Second half

46'Substitution · D. Besio ⇄ L. Frokaj
Goal · N. Reichmuth (assist : F. Dursun)47'
48'Goal · L. Frokaj (assist : A. Balde)
51'Yellow card · L. Gortler
Goal · B. Labeau (assist : F. Dursun)53'
Goal · F. Dursun (assist : F. Saiz)58'
Substitution · F. Dursun ⇄ S. Lengen61'
67'Substitution · C. Witzig ⇄ N. Scherrer
67'Substitution · J. Stanic ⇄ C. Kleine-Bekel
67'Substitution · M. Stevanovic ⇄ E. Owusu
Substitution · N. Reichmuth ⇄ N. Maier72'
Substitution · B. Labeau ⇄ R. Braschi72'
74'Yellow card · H. Vandermersch
75'Goal · N. Scherrer (assist : C. Okoroji)
79'Substitution · H. Vandermersch ⇄ C. Konietzke
Substitution · J. Roth ⇄ M. Kait79'
Substitution · M. Burki ⇄ L. Passavant79'
90'Goal · L. Daschner (assist : E. Owusu)

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

St. Gallen or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: St. Gallen had 25 shots against 7, for 3 goals against 4.
- The chances were on the right side: 2.91 expected goals for St. Gallen against 1.26, and the score says the opposite.
St. Gallen to win51%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSt. Gallen 5th, Thun 9th (Super League)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Thun (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match47′ Thun go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match90′ last goal, St. Gallen

What it changes

In this league, “St. Gallen or draw” goes from 66.7% to 60% success rate, over 10 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Super League

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes