Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Ligue 1 · France

full time

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Lorient

1-2full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 1–0

Troyes

What Janus-12 said

78%

Lorient or draw

91% success over 11 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 22 %

A prediction at 78 % fails 22 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Lorient or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 29/08, 04:08.

Sealed on 29/08, 19:45announced on 15/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

73% success over 11 matches in this league
62%✓
45% success over 11 matches in this league
50%✗

Ligue 1

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Olympique Lyonnais	5	3	2	0	+8	11
3	Paris	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	LOSC Lille	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Angers SCO	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-5	6
11	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	0	4
16	Troyes	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	Olympique Marseille	5	1	0	4	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	-3	2

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Lorient or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Lorient had 14 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- Lorient chased the score almost all match: Troyes scored as early as the 29th minute.
Draw or Troyes ahead at half-time62%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 29′ Troyes, 38′ Troyes.
Lorient to win50%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLorient 12th, Troyes 16th (Ligue 1)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Troyes (0-1)
During the match38′ Troyes go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Lorient or draw” goes from 90.9% to 83.3% success rate, over 12 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Lorient on the left, Troyes on the right.

First half

Penalty goal · R. Ripart29'
Goal · L. Maronnier (assist : A. Mille)38'

Half-time0 - 2

Second half

51'Goal · J. Makengo
66'Substitution · G. Bernardeau ⇄ I. Jensen
66'Substitution · M. Kone ⇄ A. Tosin
Substitution · H. Picard ⇄ K. Diawara67'
73'Substitution · J. Makengo ⇄ P. Katseris
73'Substitution · T. Le Bris ⇄ S. Faye
Substitution · A. Mille ⇄ D. Karim78'
84'Substitution · N. Cadiou ⇄ N. Mbamba
Substitution · I. Gomis ⇄ A. Phliponeau85'
Substitution · R. Ripart ⇄ Y. Kone85'
Substitution · L. Maronnier ⇄ N. Donkor86'

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Lorient or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Lorient had 14 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- Lorient chased the score almost all match: Troyes scored as early as the 29th minute.
Draw or Troyes ahead at half-time62%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 29′ Troyes, 38′ Troyes.
Lorient to win50%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLorient 12th, Troyes 16th (Ligue 1)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Troyes (0-1)
During the match38′ Troyes go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Lorient or draw” goes from 90.9% to 83.3% success rate, over 12 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Ligue 1

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes