Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Eredivisie · Netherlands

full time

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Ajax

2–2full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–1

Excelsior

What Janus-12 said

90%

Ajax or draw

81% success over 43 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Ajax or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
Betwinner
MelBet
Paripesa
PMUC
SportyBet

Open a Betwinner account

Promo code: janus-12

Partner link: Janus-12 is paid for accounts opened with this link or code.

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 00:32.

Sealed on 19/09, 19:00announced on 05/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

81% success over 43 matches in this league
79%✓
71% success over 7 matches in this league
54%✗
70% success over 43 matches in this league
65%✗
56% success over 43 matches in this league
76%✗
45% success over 38 matches in this league
54%✗

Eredivisie

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	+12	14
6	For Sittard	7	4	1	2	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	+2	9
11	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	-13	5
16	Zwolle	7	1	1	5	-14	4
17	Den Haag	7	0	2	5	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	-14	2

What we announced

2/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ajax or draw90%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Ajax against 2.
At least 1 goal before half-time79%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 32′ Ajax, 45′ Excelsior.
Ajax ahead at half-time54%lost
One team ahead at half-time65%lost
Ajax to win76%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ajax had 33 shots against 4, for 2 goals against 2.
At most 1 goal before half-time54%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAjax 5th, Excelsior 7th (Eredivisie)

During the match

During the match32′ opening goal, Ajax (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, Excelsior (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match62′ turnaround, Excelsior go ahead (1-2)
During the match64′ equaliser, Ajax (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Ajax or draw” goes from 81.4% to 81.8% success rate, over 44 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Ajax on the left, Excelsior on the right.

First half

23'Substitution · Caio Henrique ⇄ Owen Wijndal
32'Goal · Julian Brandt (assist : Kasper Dolberg)
Yellow card · Jan Plug35'
Goal · Lennard Hartjes45+1'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

61'Substitution · Viktor Tsygankov ⇄ Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
62'Substitution · Kasper Dolberg ⇄ Tolu Arokodare
Goal · Aymen sliti (assist : Irakli Yegoian)62'
64'Goal · Tolu Arokodare (assist : Oscar Gloukh)
Substitution · Eric da Silva Moreira ⇄ Kasey Bos65'
Substitution · Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson ⇄ Ilano Silva Timas71'
Substitution · Aymen sliti ⇄ Alireza Jahanbakhsh71'
76'Substitution · Jorthy Mokio ⇄ Sofyan Amrabat
77'Substitution · Davy Klaassen ⇄ Abdellah Ouazane
85'Yellow card · Oscar Gloukh
Yellow card · Irakli Yegoian85'
Substitution · David Garden ⇄ Mario Domínguez Franco85'

What we announced

2/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ajax or draw90%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Ajax against 2.
At least 1 goal before half-time79%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 32′ Ajax, 45′ Excelsior.
Ajax ahead at half-time54%lost
One team ahead at half-time65%lost
Ajax to win76%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ajax had 33 shots against 4, for 2 goals against 2.
At most 1 goal before half-time54%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAjax 5th, Excelsior 7th (Eredivisie)

During the match

During the match32′ opening goal, Ajax (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, Excelsior (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match62′ turnaround, Excelsior go ahead (1-2)
During the match64′ equaliser, Ajax (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Ajax or draw” goes from 81.4% to 81.8% success rate, over 44 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Eredivisie

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes