Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Netherlands

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

Helmond Sport

2–2full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 1–0

Heracles

What Janus-12 said

80%

Draw or Heracles

82% success over 66 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Draw or Heracles

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 02/10, 20:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 20:00announced on 19/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 45 matches in this league
69%✗
58% success over 66 matches in this league
55%✗

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	FC Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Heracles80%held
- Heracles held on with ten men for 82 minutes (sent off in the 8th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Helmond Sport played 19 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 71st minute.
Under 11.5 corners69%lost
- 14 corners in total, with 33% possession for Helmond Sport.
Heracles to win55%lost
- Heracles finished with ten men: sent off in the 8th minute, 82 minutes a man down.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Heracles had 30 shots against 13, for 2 goals against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableHelmond Sport 7th, Heracles 16th (Eerste Divisie: Period 3)

During the match

During the match6′ opening goal, Heracles (0-1)
During the match8′ sending-off, Heracles (David Vicente)
During the match13′ equaliser, Helmond Sport (1-1)
During the match44′ Heracles retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match54′ equaliser, Helmond Sport (2-2)
During the match71′ sending-off, Helmond Sport (Tarik Essakkati)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Heracles” goes from 81.8% to 82.1% success rate, over 67 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Helmond Sport on the left, Heracles on the right.

First half

Goal · Maurice Wrusch (assist : Djevencio van der Kust)6'
Red card · David Vicente8'
Yellow card · Fabian De Keijzer8'
13'Goal · Tarik Essakkati (assist : Xander van der Velde)
Yellow card · Jeff Reine-Adélaïde13'
26'Yellow card · Pol Llonch
29'Yellow card · Tarik Essakkati
36'Substitution · Pol Llonch ⇄ alen dizdarevic
Goal · Manny Rodriguez Baldera44'
Substitution · Chafik Abbas ⇄ Mimeirhel Benita45'

Half-time1 – 2

Second half

54'Goal · Sem Dekkers (assist : Xander van der Velde)
58'Substitution · Joep van der Sluijs ⇄ Mauro Lenaerts
Substitution · Tristan Van Gilst ⇄ Stijn Bultman66'
Substitution · Max Hauswirth ⇄ David Tomic66'
71'Red card · Tarik Essakkati
79'Substitution · Thomas Poll ⇄ Flor Van Den Eynden
79'Substitution · Livio Cicero ⇄ Kiton Ekoli
80'Yellow card · Mauro Lenaerts
82'Yellow card · Xander van der Velde
Yellow card · Stijn Bultman82'
Yellow card · Mimeirhel Benita87'
Substitution · Mimeirhel Benita ⇄ Mario Engels88'

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Heracles80%held
- Heracles held on with ten men for 82 minutes (sent off in the 8th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Helmond Sport played 19 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 71st minute.
Under 11.5 corners69%lost
- 14 corners in total, with 33% possession for Helmond Sport.
Heracles to win55%lost
- Heracles finished with ten men: sent off in the 8th minute, 82 minutes a man down.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Heracles had 30 shots against 13, for 2 goals against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableHelmond Sport 7th, Heracles 16th (Eerste Divisie: Period 3)

During the match

During the match6′ opening goal, Heracles (0-1)
During the match8′ sending-off, Heracles (David Vicente)
During the match13′ equaliser, Helmond Sport (1-1)
During the match44′ Heracles retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match54′ equaliser, Helmond Sport (2-2)
During the match71′ sending-off, Helmond Sport (Tarik Essakkati)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Heracles” goes from 81.8% to 82.1% success rate, over 67 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes