Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

First League (Macedonia) · Macedonia

full time

Friday, 18 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 18 September at 15:00. Originally planned for Saturday 19 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 13/09.

Shkendija

4–1full timeHT 2–1 · 2H 2–0

Bashkimi Kumanovo

What Janus-12 said

71%

Under 4.5 goals

86% success over 22 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 29 %

A prediction at 71 % fails 29 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 5 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 18/09, 04:45.

Sealed on 18/09, 15:00announced on 05/09/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

77% success over 22 matches in this league
82%✓
75% success over 24 matches in this league
93%✓
73% success over 22 matches in this league
65%✗
64% success over 22 matches in this league
78%✓
64% success over 22 matches in this league
57%✗
60% success over 5 matches in this league
65%✓
55% success over 20 matches in this league
68%✓
46% success over 24 matches in this league
77%✓
33% success over 3 matches in this league
62%✓

First League

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Shkendija	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Struga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
3	Vardar Skopje	8	4	2	2	+6	14
4	Tikveš	8	3	4	1	+10	13
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	4	1	3	-3	13
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	3	1	4	-2	10
7	Sileks	8	2	3	3	+3	9
8	Aresimi	8	2	2	4	-13	8
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	1	1	6	-18	4
10	Skopje	8	0	3	5	-9	3

What we announced

7/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals71%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 16th minute, 5 in total.
Over 1.5 goals82%held
Shkendija or draw93%held
- Shkendija took the lead in the 45th minute and never let it go.
- Shkendija took control early: opening goal in the 16th minute.
At most 1 goal before half-time65%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 16′ Shkendija, 42′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 45′ Shkendija.
At least 1 goal before half-time78%held
Under 3.5 goals57%lost
Over 2.5 goals65%held
One team ahead at half-time68%held
Shkendija to win77%held
Shkendija ahead at half-time62%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableShkendija 1st, Bashkimi Kumanovo 9th (First League)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Shkendija (1-0)
During the match42′ equaliser, Bashkimi Kumanovo (1-1)
During the match45′ Shkendija retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match71′ Shkendija go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match87′ last goal, Shkendija

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 86.4% to 82.6% success rate, over 23 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,074 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

What we announced

7/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals71%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 16th minute, 5 in total.
Over 1.5 goals82%held
Shkendija or draw93%held
- Shkendija took the lead in the 45th minute and never let it go.
- Shkendija took control early: opening goal in the 16th minute.
At most 1 goal before half-time65%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 16′ Shkendija, 42′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 45′ Shkendija.
At least 1 goal before half-time78%held
Under 3.5 goals57%lost
Over 2.5 goals65%held
One team ahead at half-time68%held
Shkendija to win77%held
Shkendija ahead at half-time62%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableShkendija 1st, Bashkimi Kumanovo 9th (First League)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Shkendija (1-0)
During the match42′ equaliser, Bashkimi Kumanovo (1-1)
During the match45′ Shkendija retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match71′ Shkendija go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match87′ last goal, Shkendija

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 86.4% to 82.6% success rate, over 23 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,074 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

First League

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes