Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

First League (Macedonia) · Macedonia

full time

Saturday, 12 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 12 September at 15:00. Originally planned for Saturday 12 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 09/09.

Bashkimi Kumanovo

3–3full timeHT 2–1 · 2H 1–2

Vardar Skopje

What Janus-12 said

85%

Under 4.5 goals

89% success over 19 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 15 %

A prediction at 85 % fails 15 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 6 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 12/09, 16:32.

Sealed on 12/09, 15:00announced on 29/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 19 matches in this league
71%✓
75% success over 16 matches in this league
89%✗
74% success over 19 matches in this league
73%✗
71% success over 21 matches in this league
89%✓
68% success over 19 matches in this league
74%✗
63% success over 19 matches in this league
66%✓
53% success over 17 matches in this league
60%✓
50% success over 14 matches in this league
55%✗
48% success over 21 matches in this league
70%✗

First League

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Shkendija	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Struga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
3	Vardar Skopje	8	4	2	2	+6	14
4	Tikveš	8	3	4	1	+10	13
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	8	4	1	3	-3	13
6	Bregalnica Štip	8	3	1	4	-2	10
7	Sileks	8	2	3	3	+3	9
8	Aresimi	8	2	2	4	-13	8
9	Bashkimi Kumanovo	8	1	1	6	-18	4
10	Skopje	8	0	3	5	-9	3

What we announced

4/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%lost
Over 1.5 goals71%held
Draw or Vardar Skopje ahead at half-time89%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 21′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 33′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 37′ Vardar Skopje.
At most 1 goal before half-time73%lost
Draw or Vardar Skopje89%held
- Vardar Skopje held on with ten men for 9 minutes (sent off in the 81st minute), and the prediction held with them.
Under 3.5 goals74%lost
At least 1 goal before half-time66%held
One team ahead at half-time60%held
Under 2.5 goals55%lost
Vardar Skopje to win70%lost
- Vardar Skopje finished with ten men: sent off in the 81st minute, 9 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Bashkimi Kumanovo scored in the 86th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBashkimi Kumanovo 9th, Vardar Skopje 3rd (First League)

During the match

During the match21′ opening goal, Bashkimi Kumanovo (1-0)
During the match33′ Bashkimi Kumanovo go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match70′ Vardar Skopje come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match72′ turnaround, Vardar Skopje go ahead (2-3)
During the match81′ sending-off, Vardar Skopje
During the match86′ equaliser, Bashkimi Kumanovo (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 89.5% to 85% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

What we announced

4/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%lost
Over 1.5 goals71%held
Draw or Vardar Skopje ahead at half-time89%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 21′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 33′ Bashkimi Kumanovo, 37′ Vardar Skopje.
At most 1 goal before half-time73%lost
Draw or Vardar Skopje89%held
- Vardar Skopje held on with ten men for 9 minutes (sent off in the 81st minute), and the prediction held with them.
Under 3.5 goals74%lost
At least 1 goal before half-time66%held
One team ahead at half-time60%held
Under 2.5 goals55%lost
Vardar Skopje to win70%lost
- Vardar Skopje finished with ten men: sent off in the 81st minute, 9 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Bashkimi Kumanovo scored in the 86th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBashkimi Kumanovo 9th, Vardar Skopje 3rd (First League)

During the match

During the match21′ opening goal, Bashkimi Kumanovo (1-0)
During the match33′ Bashkimi Kumanovo go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match70′ Vardar Skopje come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match72′ turnaround, Vardar Skopje go ahead (2-3)
During the match81′ sending-off, Vardar Skopje
During the match86′ equaliser, Bashkimi Kumanovo (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 89.5% to 85% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

First League

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes