Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga MX · Mexico

full time

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Date changed (2 times)

Brought forward to Saturday 26 September at 23:50. Originally planned for Sunday 27 September at 00:00.

Change noted on 24/09.

Cruz Azul

3-3full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 1–3

Toluca

What Janus-12 said

65%

Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time

78% success over 51 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 35 %

A prediction at 65 % fails 35 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 26/09, 16:01.

Sealed on 26/09, 23:50announced on 13/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

70% success over 54 matches in this league
74%✓

Liga MX: Apertura

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	+11	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	5	3	2	+7	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Club Leon	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	-1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	+2	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	+4	12
12	UNAM Pumas	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Atl. San Luis	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	-5	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	Juarez	10	1	0	9	-18	3

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time65%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 7′ Cruz Azul, 38′ Cruz Azul.
Cruz Azul or draw74%held
- Cruz Azul took control early: opening goal in the 7th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCruz Azul 7th, Toluca 1st (Liga MX: Apertura)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, Cruz Azul (1-0)
During the match38′ Cruz Azul go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match56′ Toluca come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match78′ turnaround, Toluca go ahead (2-3)
During the match90′ equaliser, Cruz Azul (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time” goes from 78.4% to 76.9% success rate, over 52 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,960 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Cruz Azul on the left, Toluca on the right.

First half

7'Goal · Nicolás Ibañez (assist : José Paradela)
Yellow card · Diego Barbosa37'
38'Goal · Gabriel Fernández (assist : Nicolás Ibañez)
Substitution · Diego Barbosa ⇄ Érick Gutiérrez45'
45+2'Yellow card · Agustín Palavecino
Yellow card · Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich45+2'

Half-time2 - 0

Second half

VAR: Penalty confirmed · Luan Garcia52'
52'Yellow card · Willer Ditta
Penalty goal · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro55'
Goal · Alexis Vega (assist : Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro)56'
57'Yellow card · Gonzalo Piovi
Substitution · Pavel Pérez ⇄ Jesús Angulo73'
76'Substitution · Nicolás Ibañez ⇄ Andrés Montaño
76'Substitution · Agustín Palavecino ⇄ Luka Romero
Goal · Alexis Vega (assist : Nicolás Castro)78'
Substitution · Alexis Vega ⇄ Jorge Diaz82'
88'Substitution · Gonzalo Piovi ⇄ Rogelio Gonzalez
88'Substitution · Alan Mozo ⇄ Osinachi Ebere
Substitution · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ⇄ Sebastián Aceves90'
90+5'Goal · Gabriel Fernández (assist : Andrés Montaño)
90+7'Substitution · José Paradela ⇄ Juan José Calero Sierra
90+9'Yellow card · Andrés Montaño

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time65%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 7′ Cruz Azul, 38′ Cruz Azul.
Cruz Azul or draw74%held
- Cruz Azul took control early: opening goal in the 7th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCruz Azul 7th, Toluca 1st (Liga MX: Apertura)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, Cruz Azul (1-0)
During the match38′ Cruz Azul go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match56′ Toluca come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match78′ turnaround, Toluca go ahead (2-3)
During the match90′ equaliser, Cruz Azul (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Toluca ahead at half-time” goes from 78.4% to 76.9% success rate, over 52 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,960 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Liga MX: Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes