Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga MX · Mexico

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Date changed (2 times)

Moved to Sunday 13 September at 00:05. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 00:00.

Change noted on 12/09.

Toluca

5-2full timeHT 3–0 · 2H 2–2

Atlas

What Janus-12 said

60%

Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 40 %

A prediction at 60 % fails 40 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 12/09, 16:32.

Sealed on 13/09, 00:05announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

69% success over 36 matches in this league
81%✓
42% success over 36 matches in this league
55%✓

Liga MX: Apertura

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	+11	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	5	3	2	+7	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Club Leon	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	-1	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	+1	16
8	Club Tijuana	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	+2	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	+4	12
12	UNAM Pumas	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Atl. San Luis	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	-5	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	Juarez	10	1	0	9	-18	3

What we announced

2/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time60%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 3-0 at half-time, 19′ Toluca, 22′ Toluca, 29′ Toluca.
Toluca or draw81%held
- Toluca took the lead in the 19th minute and never let it go.
- Toluca took control early: opening goal in the 19th minute.
Toluca to win55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableToluca 1st, Atlas 6th (Liga MX: Apertura)

During the match

During the match19′ opening goal, Toluca (1-0)
During the match22′ Toluca go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-0
During the match79′ last goal, Atlas

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time” goes from 82.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,949 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Toluca on the left, Atlas on the right.

First half

17'VAR: Penalty confirmed · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
19'Penalty goal · Alexis Vega
22'Goal · Jesús Angulo (assist : Nicolás Castro)
Yellow card · Manuel Capasso24'
29'Goal · Federico Viñas (assist : Bruno Méndez)
45'Substitution · Federico Viñas ⇄ João Paulo Dias Fernandes
Substitution · Arturo González ⇄ Luis Lopes45'
Substitution · Paulo Ramirez ⇄ Sergio Hernández45'

Half-time3 - 0

Second half

Goal · Florián Monzón (assist : Luís André Leite Esteves)51'
53'Goal · João Paulo Dias Fernandes (assist : Jesús Angulo)
57'Yellow card · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Yellow card · Milton Valenzuela57'
58'Substitution · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ⇄ Everardo Lopez
60'Own goal · Jorge Rodríguez
Substitution · Jorge Sánchez ⇄ Elías Montiel62'
72'Substitution · Jesús Angulo ⇄ Víctor Guzmán
72'Substitution · Nicolás Castro ⇄ Pavel Pérez
Substitution · Luís André Leite Esteves ⇄ J. Serrato79'
Goal · Luis Lopes79'
Yellow card · J. Serrato81'
83'Substitution · Alexis Vega ⇄ Luan Garcia
Substitution · Manuel Capasso ⇄ Adrian Mora87'

What we announced

2/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time60%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 3-0 at half-time, 19′ Toluca, 22′ Toluca, 29′ Toluca.
Toluca or draw81%held
- Toluca took the lead in the 19th minute and never let it go.
- Toluca took control early: opening goal in the 19th minute.
Toluca to win55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableToluca 1st, Atlas 6th (Liga MX: Apertura)

During the match

During the match19′ opening goal, Toluca (1-0)
During the match22′ Toluca go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-0
During the match79′ last goal, Atlas

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atlas ahead at half-time” goes from 82.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,949 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Liga MX: Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes