Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera A · Colombia

full time

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Once Caldas

1–3full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 1–1

Bucaramanga

What Janus-12 said

74%

Once Caldas or draw

82% success over 61 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 26 %

A prediction at 74 % fails 26 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Once Caldas or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 25/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 26/09, 02:15announced on 12/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Apertura

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	-17	10

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Once Caldas or draw74%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Once Caldas had 29 shots against 8, for 1 goal against 3.
- Once Caldas chased the score almost all match: Bucaramanga scored as early as the 2nd minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableOnce Caldas 5th, Bucaramanga 13th (Apertura)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, Bucaramanga (0-1)
During the match12′ Bucaramanga go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Once Caldas or draw” goes from 82% to 80.6% success rate, over 62 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,908 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Once Caldas on the left, Bucaramanga on the right.

First half

Goal · Emerson Batalla (assist : Felix Charrupi)2'
Goal · Edwin Castro (assist : Fabián Sambueza)12'
34'Yellow card · Helieyker Guzman
Yellow card · Luciano Pons40'
Yellow card · Fredy Hinestroza45'
45'Substitution · Helieyker Guzman ⇄ Felipe Gomez
45'Substitution · Juan Castaño ⇄ Juan Pablo Nieto
45'Substitution · Jaime Alvarado ⇄ Daniel Marmolejo

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

Goal · Felix Charrupi (assist : Luciano Pons)59'
61'Goal · Dayro Moreno (assist : Andres Colorado)
VAR: Penalty cancelled · Emerson Batalla69'
Substitution · Fredy Hinestroza ⇄ Aldair Gutiérrez71'
Substitution · Fabián Sambueza ⇄ Leonardo Flores71'
Yellow card · Edwin Castro77'
Yellow card · Diego Novoa77'
Substitution · Emerson Batalla ⇄ Brandon·Caicedo84'
Substitution · Luciano Pons ⇄ Fredy Salazar84'
Yellow card · Javier Antonio Tetes Ferreyra89'
90+1'Substitution · Juan Cuesta ⇄ Efraín Navarro
Substitution · Felix Charrupi ⇄ Victor Cantillo90+3'
Yellow card · Fredy Salazar90+5'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Once Caldas or draw74%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Once Caldas had 29 shots against 8, for 1 goal against 3.
- Once Caldas chased the score almost all match: Bucaramanga scored as early as the 2nd minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableOnce Caldas 5th, Bucaramanga 13th (Apertura)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, Bucaramanga (0-1)
During the match12′ Bucaramanga go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Once Caldas or draw” goes from 82% to 80.6% success rate, over 62 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,908 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes