Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera A · Colombia

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

Alianza Valledupar

1-5full timeHT 1–3 · 2H 0–2

Atletico Nacional

What Janus-12 said

78%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

75% success over 16 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where this market is covered· 7 bookmakers

Market covered: Draw or Atletico Nacional

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
Betwinner
MelBet
Paripesa
SportyBet

We show the implied probability, not the operator's price. Availability checked on 29/08, 06:32.

Sealed on 30/08, 02:30announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other forecasts, most reliable first

56% success over 9 matches in this league
66%✓

Clausura

as of 08/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	America de Cali	12	8	3	1	+17	27
2	Deportivo Cali	12	7	3	2	+11	24
3	Bucaramanga	11	6	5	0	+10	23
4	Atletico Nacional	10	7	1	2	+11	22
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Millonarios	13	5	6	2	+7	21
7	Independiente Medellin	12	6	2	4	+3	20
8	Deportes Tolima	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Cucuta	12	4	3	5	-4	15
10	Llaneros	12	4	2	6	-1	14
11	Águilas Doradas	11	3	5	3	-1	14
12	Once Caldas	12	3	4	5	-1	13
13	Internacional de Bogota	13	2	7	4	-4	13
14	Chico	11	3	3	5	-8	12
15	Alianza Valledupar	12	3	2	7	-12	11
16	Fortaleza FC	12	1	7	4	-5	10
17	Junior	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	-9	9
19	Deportivo Pereira	11	1	5	5	-10	8
20	Jaguares	11	1	4	6	-9	7

What we announced

2/2

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atletico Nacional78%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Atletico Nacional against 2.
- Atletico Nacional took the lead in the 5th minute and never let it go.
Over 7.5 corners66%held
- 8 corners in total, with 37% possession for Alianza Valledupar.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlianza Valledupar 15th, Atletico Nacional 4th (Clausura)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Atletico Nacional (0-1)
During the match19′ Atletico Nacional go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-3
During the match90′ last goal, Atletico Nacional

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atletico Nacional” goes from 75% to 76.5% success rate, over 17 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Alianza Valledupar on the left, Atletico Nacional on the right.

First half

Goal · A. Sarmiento (assist : E. Cardona)5'
8'Yellow card · E. W. Meza Mercado
Yellow card · W. Tesillo16'
Goal · A. Morelos (assist : Y. A. Perlaza Perea)19'
Goal · M. Moreno (assist : A. Morelos)24'
26'Yellow card · I. Alba
34'Penalty goal · F. Pardo
36'Yellow card · Y. Rosales
36'Substitution · I. Alba ⇄ M. Martinez

Half-time1 - 3

Second half

Substitution · S. Velasquez ⇄ J. Zapata46'
46'Substitution · E. W. Meza Mercado ⇄ C. Esparragoza
57'Substitution · Y. Rosales ⇄ P. Franco
Substitution · E. Cardona ⇄ C. Arango61'
Substitution · Y. A. Perlaza Perea ⇄ X. Rios61'
69'Substitution · C. Vergara ⇄ H. Rada
69'Substitution · F. Pardo ⇄ D. Quinones
Substitution · A. Sarmiento ⇄ K. Parra Atehortua72'
Goal · M. Moreno (assist : J. Rengifo)79'
Substitution · M. Moreno ⇄ J. Rosa80'
90+1'Yellow card · C. Esparragoza
Goal · J. Rosa90+3'

What we announced

2/2

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atletico Nacional78%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Atletico Nacional against 2.
- Atletico Nacional took the lead in the 5th minute and never let it go.
Over 7.5 corners66%held
- 8 corners in total, with 37% possession for Alianza Valledupar.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlianza Valledupar 15th, Atletico Nacional 4th (Clausura)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Atletico Nacional (0-1)
During the match19′ Atletico Nacional go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-3
During the match90′ last goal, Atletico Nacional

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atletico Nacional” goes from 75% to 76.5% success rate, over 17 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Clausura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes