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Janus-12

Primera División (Peru) · Peru

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

Alianza Lima

0-1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 0–0

Deportivo Garcilaso

What Janus-12 said

82%

Alianza Lima or draw

68% success over 19 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 18 %

A prediction at 82 % fails 18 % of the time: it happened.

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 29/08, 15:43.

Sealed on 30/08, 01:30announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

53% success over 17 matches in this league
59%✓
47% success over 19 matches in this league
56%✗

Primera Division: Apertura

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	+22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	+4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	+9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	+9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	+3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	+2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	+1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Alianza Lima or draw82%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Alianza Lima had 25 shots against 8, for 0 goal against 1.
- Alianza Lima chased the score almost all match: Deportivo Garcilaso scored as early as the 29th minute.
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso ahead at half-time59%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 29′ Deportivo Garcilaso.
Alianza Lima to win56%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlianza Lima 1st, Deportivo Garcilaso 7th (Primera Division: Apertura)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Deportivo Garcilaso (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Alianza Lima or draw” goes from 68.4% to 65% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Alianza Lima on the left, Deportivo Garcilaso on the right.

First half

Penalty goal · B. Da Silva29'
Yellow card · F. Castelli41'
45+1'Yellow card · J. Velez

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

46'Substitution · Paolo Guerrero ⇄ F. Girotti
46'Substitution · A. Cantero ⇄ C. Neira
Substitution · F. Castelli ⇄ C. Olivares63'
Yellow card · A. Salazar72'
75'Substitution · M. Antoni ⇄ C. Carbajal
75'Substitution · L. Advincula ⇄ A. Burlamaqui
75'Substitution · J. Velez ⇄ L. Ramos
81'Yellow card · R. Garces
Substitution · F. Arancibia ⇄ A. Ascues82'
Substitution · B. Da Silva ⇄ S. Ramirez88'
Yellow card · A. Gomez90+3'
90+3'Yellow card · N. Diaz

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Alianza Lima or draw82%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Alianza Lima had 25 shots against 8, for 0 goal against 1.
- Alianza Lima chased the score almost all match: Deportivo Garcilaso scored as early as the 29th minute.
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso ahead at half-time59%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 29′ Deportivo Garcilaso.
Alianza Lima to win56%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlianza Lima 1st, Deportivo Garcilaso 7th (Primera Division: Apertura)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Deportivo Garcilaso (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Alianza Lima or draw” goes from 68.4% to 65% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,588 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primera Division: Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes