Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Saturday, 3 October 2026

Estonia

1-0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–0

Luxembourg

What Janus-12 said

73%

Draw or Luxembourg

72% success over 18 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 27 %

A prediction at 73 % fails 27 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or Luxembourg

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 00:00.

Sealed on 03/10, 17:00announced on 01/10/2026, 1 day before kick-off

League C - Group D

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Iceland	4	2	2	0	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Luxembourg73%lost
- Luxembourg chased the score almost all match: Estonia scored as early as the 5th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstonia 2nd, Luxembourg 4th (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Estonia (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Luxembourg” goes from 72.2% to 68.4% success rate, over 19 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Estonia on the left, Luxembourg on the right.

First half

5'Goal · Rasmus Peetson
Yellow card · Enes Mahmutovic29'
43'Yellow card · Jürgen Henn

Half-time1 - 0

Second half

Substitution · Aiman Dardari ⇄ Hamza Kadamani62'
Substitution · Enzo dos Santos ⇄ Sebastien Thill62'
66'Substitution · Mattias Männilaan ⇄ karel mustmaa
Yellow card · Omar Natami68'
72'Substitution · Kevor Palumets ⇄ Markus Soomets
Substitution · Vincent Thill ⇄ Timothé Rupil73'
73'Yellow card · Märten Kuusk
Yellow card · Vahid Selimović78'
80'Substitution · Mattias Käit ⇄ Mihkel Ainsalu
82'Yellow card · Karol Mets
Substitution · Florian Bohnert ⇄ Mathias Olesen83'
Substitution · Enes Mahmutovic ⇄ Eldin Dzogovic83'
Yellow card · Leandro Barreiro84'
Yellow card · Eldin Dzogovic85'
Yellow card · Mathias Olesen87'
88'Yellow card · Markus Poom

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Luxembourg73%lost
- Luxembourg chased the score almost all match: Estonia scored as early as the 5th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstonia 2nd, Luxembourg 4th (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Estonia (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Luxembourg” goes from 72.2% to 68.4% success rate, over 19 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League C - Group D

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes