Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

1. Division (Kazakhstan) · Kazakhstan

full time

Friday, 11 September 2026

Ekibastuz

1–5full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 1–4

Tobol 2

What Janus-12 said

69%

Under 4.5 goals

83% success over 24 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 31 %

A prediction at 69 % fails 31 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 11/09, 04:45.

Sealed on 11/09, 12:00announced on 28/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

70% success over 23 matches in this league
68%✓
63% success over 19 matches in this league
51%✓
58% success over 24 matches in this league
60%✗
53% success over 19 matches in this league
55%✗

1st Division

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	23	20	2	1	+56	62
2	Sport Academy Kairat	23	17	5	1	+54	56
3	Turan Turkistan	23	16	2	5	+30	50
4	Akademiya Ontustik	23	13	4	6	+9	43
5	Astana II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
6	Jaiyq	23	9	4	10	-5	31
7	Taraz	23	8	6	9	-2	30
8	Ekibastuz	23	7	5	11	-22	26
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	23	7	4	12	-12	25
10	Khan Tengri	23	7	4	12	-15	25
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	-14	24
12	Aktobe Jas	23	6	5	12	-31	23
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	-17	16
14	Yelimay Semey 2	23	3	3	17	-30	12

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals69%lost
Over 2.5 goals68%held
Draw or Tobol 2 ahead at half-time51%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 30′ Tobol 2.
Ekibastuz to win60%lost
- Ekibastuz finished with ten men: sent off in the 71st minute, 19 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Tobol 2 scored in the 88th minute.
Under 3.5 goals55%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEkibastuz 8th, Tobol 2 13th (1st Division)

During the match

During the match30′ opening goal, Tobol 2 (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match53′ Tobol 2 go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match71′ sending-off, Ekibastuz (A. Orazbek)
During the match88′ last goal, Tobol 2

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 83.3% to 80% success rate, over 25 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,414 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals69%lost
Over 2.5 goals68%held
Draw or Tobol 2 ahead at half-time51%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 30′ Tobol 2.
Ekibastuz to win60%lost
- Ekibastuz finished with ten men: sent off in the 71st minute, 19 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Tobol 2 scored in the 88th minute.
Under 3.5 goals55%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEkibastuz 8th, Tobol 2 13th (1st Division)

During the match

During the match30′ opening goal, Tobol 2 (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match53′ Tobol 2 go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match71′ sending-off, Ekibastuz (A. Orazbek)
During the match88′ last goal, Tobol 2

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 83.3% to 80% success rate, over 25 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,414 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

1st Division

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes