Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Saturday, 3 October 2026

Iceland

3-0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 2–0

Bulgaria

What Janus-12 said

80%

Iceland or draw

72% success over 18 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Iceland or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 00:00.

Sealed on 03/10, 17:00announced on 01/10/2026, 1 day before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

39% success over 18 matches in this league
54%✓

League C - Group D

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Iceland	4	2	2	0	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Iceland or draw80%held
- Iceland took the lead in the 37th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 6 shots on target for Iceland against 3.
Iceland to win54%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIceland 1st, Bulgaria 3rd (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match37′ opening goal, Iceland (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match60′ Iceland go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Iceland

What it changes

In this league, “Iceland or draw” goes from 72.2% to 73.7% success rate, over 19 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Iceland on the left, Bulgaria on the right.

First half

4'Yellow card · Hörður Magnússon
Yellow card · Lukas Petkov10'
Yellow card · Dimitar Velkovski27'
32'Yellow card · Mikael Ellertsson
37'Goal · Orri Steinn Óskarsson (assist : Hákon Arnar Haraldsson)
45'Substitution · Arnór Sigurðsson ⇄ Andri Guðjohnsen
45'Substitution · Aron Gunnarsson ⇄ Daniel Leo Gretarsson

Half-time1 - 0

Second half

Substitution · Ilia Gruev ⇄ Emil Tsenov55'
Substitution · Lukas Petkov ⇄ Marin Plamenov·Petkov55'
Yellow card · Atanas Iliev59'
60'Goal · Orri Steinn Óskarsson (assist : Mikael Anderson)
62'Substitution · Andri Fannar Baldursson ⇄ Victor Pálsson
62'Substitution · Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson ⇄ Gylfi Sigurðsson
Substitution · Asen Chandarov ⇄ P. Panayotov67'
Substitution · Georgi Rusev ⇄ Zdravko Dimitrov67'
Yellow card · Marin Plamenov·Petkov80'
82'Substitution · Hákon Arnar Haraldsson ⇄ Logi Tomasson
Substitution · Atanas Iliev ⇄ Vladimir Nikolov83'
84'Missed penalty · Orri Steinn Óskarsson
90'Goal · Mikael Ellertsson (assist : Orri Steinn Óskarsson)

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Iceland or draw80%held
- Iceland took the lead in the 37th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 6 shots on target for Iceland against 3.
Iceland to win54%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIceland 1st, Bulgaria 3rd (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match37′ opening goal, Iceland (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match60′ Iceland go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Iceland

What it changes

In this league, “Iceland or draw” goes from 72.2% to 73.7% success rate, over 19 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League C - Group D

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes