Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

Ukraine

0-3full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 0–1

Northern Ireland

What Janus-12 said

83%

Ukraine or draw

70% success over 10 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 17 %

A prediction at 83 % fails 17 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Ukraine or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 02/10, 20:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 1 day before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

40% success over 10 matches in this league
60%✗

League B - Group B

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Hungary	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	-3	4
4	Georgia	4	0	2	2	-2	2

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ukraine or draw83%lost
- Ukraine chased the score almost all match: Northern Ireland scored as early as the 9th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ukraine had 11 shots against 10, for 0 goal against 3.
Ukraine to win60%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableUkraine 3rd, Northern Ireland 1st (League B - Group B)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Northern Ireland (0-1)
During the match22′ Northern Ireland go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Ukraine or draw” goes from 70% to 63.6% success rate, over 11 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Ukraine on the left, Northern Ireland on the right.

First half

Goal · Ciaron Brown9'
Goal · Isaac Price (assist : Kieran Morrison)22'

Half-time0 - 2

Second half

56'Substitution · Volodymyr Brazhko ⇄ Egor Nazaryna
57'Yellow card · Mykola Matvienko
Goal · Ciaron Brown (assist : Pierce Charles)61'
63'Substitution · Valeriy Bondar ⇄ Danylo Sikan
63'Substitution · Andriy Yarmolenko ⇄ Oleksandr Zubkov
63'Substitution · Roman Yaremchuk ⇄ Matviy Ponomarenko
Yellow card · Brodie Spencer64'
Substitution · Isaac Price ⇄ Justin Devenny67'
68'Substitution · Heorhii Sudakov ⇄ Oleksandr Nazarenko
Substitution · Kieran Morrison ⇄ Patrick Kelly77'
Substitution · Jamie Donley ⇄ Josh Magennis77'
Substitution · Tom Atcheson ⇄ Paddy McNair84'
Substitution · Terry Devlin ⇄ Ceadach O'Neill84'
88'Yellow card · Matviy Ponomarenko
88'Yellow card · Danylo Sikan

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ukraine or draw83%lost
- Ukraine chased the score almost all match: Northern Ireland scored as early as the 9th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ukraine had 11 shots against 10, for 0 goal against 3.
Ukraine to win60%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableUkraine 3rd, Northern Ireland 1st (League B - Group B)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Northern Ireland (0-1)
During the match22′ Northern Ireland go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Ukraine or draw” goes from 70% to 63.6% success rate, over 11 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League B - Group B

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes