Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

France

1-1full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–1

Italy

What Janus-12 said

80%

France or draw

70% success over 10 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: France or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 02/10, 20:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 1 day before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

40% success over 10 matches in this league
59%✗

League A - Group A

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	France	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	-9	0

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

France or draw80%held
- France held on with ten men for 5 minutes (sent off in the 85th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for France against 2.
France to win59%lost
- France finished with ten men: sent off in the 85th minute, 5 minutes a man down.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: France had 18 shots against 14, for 1 goal against 1.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFrance 1st, Italy 2nd (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match55′ opening goal, France (1-0)
During the match68′ equaliser, Italy (1-1)
During the match85′ sending-off, France (Dayot Upamecano)

What it changes

In this league, “France or draw” goes from 70% to 72.7% success rate, over 11 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

France on the left, Italy on the right.

Half-time0 - 0

Second half

Yellow card · Nicolo Fagioli54'
55'Goal · Michael Olise (assist : Rayan Cherki)
Substitution · Pio Esposito ⇄ Antonio Vergara62'
Substitution · Sandro Tonali ⇄ Nicolò Barella62'
Goal · Alessandro Bastoni68'
73'Yellow card · Dayot Upamecano
Yellow card · Moise Kean73'
76'Substitution · Désiré Doue ⇄ Bradley Barcola
76'Substitution · Rayan Cherki ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga
Substitution · Sebastiano Esposito ⇄ Daniel Maldini80'
Substitution · Davide Frattesi ⇄ Issa Doumbia80'
Yellow card · Antonio Vergara82'
85'Red card · Dayot Upamecano
87'Substitution · Lucas Da Cunha ⇄ Maxence Lacroix
Substitution · Nicolo Fagioli ⇄ Gianluca Scamacca90'
Yellow card · Alessandro Bastoni90+2'

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

France or draw80%held
- France held on with ten men for 5 minutes (sent off in the 85th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for France against 2.
France to win59%lost
- France finished with ten men: sent off in the 85th minute, 5 minutes a man down.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: France had 18 shots against 14, for 1 goal against 1.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFrance 1st, Italy 2nd (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match55′ opening goal, France (1-0)
During the match68′ equaliser, Italy (1-1)
During the match85′ sending-off, France (Dayot Upamecano)

What it changes

In this league, “France or draw” goes from 70% to 72.7% success rate, over 11 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes