Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Thursday, 1 October 2026

Denmark

2-4full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 1–2

Portugal

What Janus-12 said

75%

Draw or Portugal

78% success over 6277 matches, all leagues

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 5 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Portugal

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 01/10, 22:30.

Sealed on 01/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 35 minutes before kick-off

League A - Group D

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff	Pts
1	Portugal	4	4	0	+5	12
2	Denmark	4	2	2	0	6
3	Wales	4	1	3	-3	3
4	Norway	4	1	3	-2	3

What we announced

1/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Portugal75%held
- Portugal took the lead in the 67th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 10 shots on target for Portugal against 3.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableDenmark 2nd, Portugal 1st (League A - Group D)

During the match

During the match13′ opening goal, Portugal (0-1)
During the match23′ equaliser, Denmark (1-1)
During the match25′ Portugal retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match53′ equaliser, Denmark (2-2)
During the match67′ Portugal retake the lead (2-3)
During the match87′ Portugal go 2 goals up (2-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Portugal” goes from 77.9% to 77.9% success rate, over 6278 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 783,978 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Denmark on the left, Portugal on the right.

First half

Goal · João Cancelo (assist : Gonçalo Ramos)13'
23'Goal · Mikkel Damsgaard (assist : Joakim Maehle)
Goal · Gonçalo Ramos (assist : Bruno Fernandes)25'
45'Substitution · Adam Daghim ⇄ Gustav Isaksen

Half-time1 - 2

Second half

53'Goal · Rasmus Hojlund (assist : Mikkel Damsgaard)
Substitution · João Cancelo ⇄ Diogo Dalot63'
Substitution · Rafael Leão ⇄ Francisco Trincão63'
Goal · Vitinha (assist : Bruno Fernandes)67'
Yellow card · Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus68'
74'Substitution · Morten Hjulmand ⇄ Victor Froholdt
79'Yellow card · Mohammed Daramy
80'Substitution · Joakim Maehle ⇄ Nikolas Nartey
Substitution · Gonçalo Ramos ⇄ João Neves81'
Substitution · Pedro Neto ⇄ Joao Felix81'
Yellow card · Rúben Neves82'
85'Substitution · Mikkel Damsgaard ⇄ Kasper Hogh
Goal · Joao Felix (assist : Diogo Dalot)87'
Substitution · Bruno Fernandes ⇄ Tomás Araújo90+2'

What we announced

1/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Portugal75%held
- Portugal took the lead in the 67th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 10 shots on target for Portugal against 3.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableDenmark 2nd, Portugal 1st (League A - Group D)

During the match

During the match13′ opening goal, Portugal (0-1)
During the match23′ equaliser, Denmark (1-1)
During the match25′ Portugal retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match53′ equaliser, Denmark (2-2)
During the match67′ Portugal retake the lead (2-3)
During the match87′ Portugal go 2 goals up (2-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Portugal” goes from 77.9% to 77.9% success rate, over 6278 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 783,978 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group D

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes