Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Serie B (Brazil) · Brazil

full time

Saturday, 3 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 3 October at 01:35. Originally planned for Saturday 3 October at 20:00.

Change noted on 23/09.

Fortaleza

1–1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 0–0

Nautico Recife

What Janus-12 said

57%

Fortaleza to win

50% success over 2 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 43 %

A prediction at 57 % fails 43 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Fortaleza to win

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 00:00.

Sealed on 03/10, 01:35announced on 01/10/2026, 1 day before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

50% success over 2 matches in this league
82%✓

Serie B

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Vila Nova	31	17	6	8	+13	57
2	Juventude	31	16	8	7	+16	56
3	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	+25	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	+6	53
5	Fortaleza	31	14	11	6	+9	53
6	Atletico GO	31	14	10	7	+12	52
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	+2	48
8	Operario-PR	31	13	9	9	+2	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	+9	47
10	Cuiaba	31	11	13	7	+7	46
11	São Bernardo	31	12	9	10	+11	45
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	-9	42
13	Nautico Recife	31	11	9	11	+1	42
14	Athletic Club	31	10	12	9	+2	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	-5	39
16	Botafogo SP	31	9	8	14	-3	35
17	Avai	31	8	6	17	-12	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	-6	28
19	America MG	31	4	5	22	-31	17
20	Ponte Preta	31	3	4	24	-49	13

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Fortaleza to win57%lost
- Fortaleza chased the score almost all match: Nautico Recife scored as early as the 5th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Fortaleza had 16 shots against 12, for 1 goal against 1.
Fortaleza or draw82%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 4 shots on target for Fortaleza against 3.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFortaleza 5th, Nautico Recife 13th (Serie B)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Nautico Recife (0-1)
During the match43′ equaliser, Fortaleza (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1

What it changes

In this league, “Fortaleza to win” goes from 50% to 33.3% success rate, over 3 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Fortaleza on the left, Nautico Recife on the right.

First half

Goal · Vinicius (assist : Luan Sales)5'
31'Yellow card · Lucas Xavier Gazal
43'Goal · Luiz Fernando (assist : Maílton)
45'Substitution · Pedro Henrique ⇄ Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
Yellow card · Samuel45+4'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

Yellow card · Luan Sales51'
Substitution · Derek Freitas Ribeiro ⇄ Benjamín Borasi58'
Substitution · Samuel ⇄ Luiz Felipe58'
71'Substitution · Nathan Fogaça ⇄ Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
71'Substitution · Lucas Sasha ⇄ Juan Camilo Cantillo
Substitution · Luan Sales ⇄ Reginaldo71'
76'Substitution · Vitor Ferreira ⇄ Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
Substitution · Léo Índio ⇄ Wanderson Camelo Viana85'
Substitution · Todinho ⇄ Paulo Sérgio85'
85'Substitution · Luiz Fernando ⇄ Paulo Baya
Yellow card · Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira90+4'

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Fortaleza to win57%lost
- Fortaleza chased the score almost all match: Nautico Recife scored as early as the 5th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Fortaleza had 16 shots against 12, for 1 goal against 1.
Fortaleza or draw82%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 4 shots on target for Fortaleza against 3.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFortaleza 5th, Nautico Recife 13th (Serie B)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Nautico Recife (0-1)
During the match43′ equaliser, Fortaleza (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1

What it changes

In this league, “Fortaleza to win” goes from 50% to 33.3% success rate, over 3 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Serie B

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes