Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Serie B (Brazil) · Brazil

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 2 October at 00:30. Originally planned for Saturday 3 October at 20:00.

Change noted on 23/09.

Athletic Club

1–2full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 0–0

Sport Recife

What Janus-12 said

78%

Athletic Club or draw

78% success over 6289 matches, all leagues

✗ Fell into the 22 %

A prediction at 78 % fails 22 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Athletic Club or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 01/10, 22:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 00:30announced on 01/10/2026, 5 hours before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

51% success over 6294 matches, all leagues
53%✗

Serie B

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Vila Nova	31	17	6	8	+13	57
2	Juventude	31	16	8	7	+16	56
3	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	+25	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	+6	53
5	Fortaleza	31	14	11	6	+9	53
6	Atletico GO	31	14	10	7	+12	52
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	+2	48
8	Operario-PR	31	13	9	9	+2	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	+9	47
10	Cuiaba	31	11	13	7	+7	46
11	São Bernardo	31	12	9	10	+11	45
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	-9	42
13	Nautico Recife	31	11	9	11	+1	42
14	Athletic Club	31	10	12	9	+2	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	-5	39
16	Botafogo SP	31	9	8	14	-3	35
17	Avai	31	8	6	17	-12	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	-6	28
19	America MG	31	4	5	22	-31	17
20	Ponte Preta	31	3	4	24	-49	13

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Athletic Club or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Athletic Club had 29 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- Athletic Club chased the score almost all match: Sport Recife scored as early as the 14th minute.
Athletic Club to win53%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAthletic Club 14th, Sport Recife 9th (Serie B)

During the match

During the match14′ opening goal, Sport Recife (0-1)
During the match24′ equaliser, Athletic Club (1-1)
During the match33′ Sport Recife retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2

What it changes

In this league, “Athletic Club or draw” goes from 77.9% to 77.9% success rate, over 6290 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 783,978 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Athletic Club on the left, Sport Recife on the right.

First half

Goal · Neto Pessoa (assist : Juan)14'
Substitution · Marlon Douglas ⇄ Carlos María de Pena Bonino20'
24'Goal · Kauan Rodrigues da Silva (assist : Yago Santos de Andrade)
26'Yellow card · Maswel Ananias Silva
Goal · Carlos María de Pena Bonino (assist : Claudinho)33'
42'Substitution · Pedro Henrique de Oliveira ⇄ Wilinton Aponza Carabali
Substitution · Juan ⇄ Patrick de Paula Carreiro45'

Half-time1 – 2

Second half

59'Substitution · Yago Santos de Andrade ⇄ Yarlen Faustino Augusto
Yellow card · Biel65'
Yellow card · Carlos María de Pena Bonino65'
Substitution · Biel ⇄ José Gabriel dos Santos Silva70'
Substitution · Neto Pessoa ⇄ Pedro Henrique Perotti70'
73'Yellow card · Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes
73'Substitution · João Miguel ⇄ Felipe Negrucci Berdague
73'Substitution · Douglas da Silva Santos ⇄ Dixon Vera
73'Substitution · Enzo Henrique dos Santos ⇄ Otavio Bruno Dos Santos
Substitution · Carlos María de Pena Bonino ⇄ Edson Lucas Pereira90+4'

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Athletic Club or draw78%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Athletic Club had 29 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- Athletic Club chased the score almost all match: Sport Recife scored as early as the 14th minute.
Athletic Club to win53%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAthletic Club 14th, Sport Recife 9th (Serie B)

During the match

During the match14′ opening goal, Sport Recife (0-1)
During the match24′ equaliser, Athletic Club (1-1)
During the match33′ Sport Recife retake the lead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2

What it changes

In this league, “Athletic Club or draw” goes from 77.9% to 77.9% success rate, over 6290 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 783,978 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Serie B

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes