Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera Nacional · Argentina

full time

Sunday, 27 September 2026

Date changed (2 times)

Moved to Sunday 27 September at 19:30. Originally planned for Saturday 26 September at 20:00.

Change noted on 20/09.

Defensores De Belgrano

0-1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 0–0

Ferro Carril Oeste

What Janus-12 said

95%

Under 4.5 goals

97% success over 118 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where this market is covered· 5 bookmakers

Market covered: Under 4.5 goals

1xBet
Betwinner
MelBet
Paripesa
SportyBet

We show the implied probability, not the operator's price. Availability checked on 27/09, 19:30.

Sealed on 27/09, 19:30announced on 13/09/2026, 14 days before kick-off

Other forecasts, most reliable first

87% success over 118 matches in this league
86%✓
83% success over 122 matches in this league
69%✗
64% success over 118 matches in this league
70%✓
56% success over 117 matches in this league
58%✗

Group 1

as of 08/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	18	7	7	+9	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	17	7	8	+19	58
3	Godoy Cruz	32	16	8	8	+13	56
4	Deportivo Madryn	32	14	11	7	+18	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	32	14	10	8	+14	52
6	Almirante Brown	32	12	10	10	+4	46
7	CA Estudiantes	32	12	9	11	+2	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	-1	45
9	Los Andes	32	9	13	10	+2	40
10	Chaco For Ever	32	9	10	13	-3	37
11	Defensores De Belgrano	32	8	13	11	-4	37
12	San Telmo	32	9	10	13	-8	37
13	Racing Cordoba	32	9	10	13	-10	37
14	Atletico Mitre	32	7	14	11	-10	35
15	Central Norte	32	6	15	11	-9	33
16	All Boys	32	6	15	11	-10	33
17	San Miguel	32	6	13	13	-13	31
18	Acassuso	32	7	8	17	-13	29

What we announced

3/5

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals95%held
Under 3.5 goals86%held
Defensores De Belgrano or draw69%lost
- Defensores De Belgrano chased the score almost all match: Ferro Carril Oeste scored as early as the 10th minute.
Under 2.5 goals70%held
Over 1.5 goals58%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableDefensores De Belgrano 11th, Ferro Carril Oeste 1st (Group 1)

During the match

During the match10′ opening goal, Ferro Carril Oeste (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 97.5% to 97.5% success rate, over 119 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 599,127 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Defensores De Belgrano on the left, Ferro Carril Oeste on the right.

First half

Goal · E. Dening10'

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

Substitution · L. Parisi ⇄ L. Marra46'
46'Substitution · A. Benitez ⇄ L. Ciccolini
Substitution · E. Hoyos ⇄ S. Garcia69'
Substitution · A. Gonzalez ⇄ S. Corda77'
78'Substitution · B. Gomez ⇄ L. Landriel
78'Substitution · I. Perez ⇄ J. Ardaiz
Yellow card · F. Monetti80'
Substitution · E. Ozuna ⇄ M. Taron89'
Substitution · E. Dening ⇄ G. Olguin89'
Yellow card · L. Marra90'
90+2'Substitution · I. Gutierrez ⇄ D. Garcia
90+2'Substitution · P. Moyano ⇄ F. Tcherkaski

What we announced

3/5

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals95%held
Under 3.5 goals86%held
Defensores De Belgrano or draw69%lost
- Defensores De Belgrano chased the score almost all match: Ferro Carril Oeste scored as early as the 10th minute.
Under 2.5 goals70%held
Over 1.5 goals58%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableDefensores De Belgrano 11th, Ferro Carril Oeste 1st (Group 1)

During the match

During the match10′ opening goal, Ferro Carril Oeste (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 97.5% to 97.5% success rate, over 119 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 599,127 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Group 1

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes