Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga Profesional (Argentina) · Argentina

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 2 October at 23:15. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 21:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Independiente

1–4full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 0–3

Instituto

What Janus-12 said

72%

Independiente or draw

73% success over 98 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 28 %

A prediction at 72 % fails 28 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Independiente or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 02/10, 20:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 23:15announced on 19/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Apertura - Group A

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union de Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Instituto	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Dep. Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Independiente or draw72%lost
- Independiente finished with ten men: sent off in the 44th minute, 46 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Instituto scored in the 80th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIndependiente 5th, Instituto 9th (Apertura - Group A)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Instituto (0-1)
During the match22′ equaliser, Independiente (1-1)
During the match44′ sending-off, Independiente (Maximiliano Meza)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match51′ Instituto retake the lead (1-2)
During the match65′ Instituto go 2 goals up (1-3)
During the match80′ last goal, Instituto

What it changes

In this league, “Independiente or draw” goes from 73.5% to 72.7% success rate, over 99 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Independiente on the left, Instituto on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Matías Tissera13'
Goal · Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro (assist : Matías Tissera)16'
Yellow card · Leonel Mosevich21'
22'Goal · Maximiliano Meza (assist : Santiago Gabriel Montiel)
23'VAR: Goal confirmed · Maximiliano Meza
29'Yellow card · Iván Marcone
40'Yellow card · Maximiliano Meza
Yellow card · Marcos Ledesma40'
44'Red card · Maximiliano Meza
Substitution · Giuliano Cerato ⇄ Hernán De La Fuente45'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

Goal · Hernán De La Fuente51'
62'Substitution · Ramiro Martino ⇄ Nahuel Banegas
62'Substitution · Matías Abaldo ⇄ Lautaro Millán
Goal · Matías Gallardo65'
Substitution · Matías Tissera ⇄ Facundo Ezquel Suarez66'
73'Substitution · Mateo Pérez Curci ⇄ Felipe Tempone
Goal · Alex Luna (assist : Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro)80'
Substitution · Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro ⇄ Lucas Martín Sanseviero Pérez81'
Substitution · Gustavo Abregú ⇄ Juan Ignacio Méndez81'
Substitution · Matías Gallardo ⇄ Jonas Acevedo87'
87'Substitution · Iván Morales ⇄ Chimy Ávila
88'Substitution · Leonardo Godoy ⇄ Santiago Arias
90+2'Yellow card · Santiago Arias

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Independiente or draw72%lost
- Independiente finished with ten men: sent off in the 44th minute, 46 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Instituto scored in the 80th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIndependiente 5th, Instituto 9th (Apertura - Group A)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Instituto (0-1)
During the match22′ equaliser, Independiente (1-1)
During the match44′ sending-off, Independiente (Maximiliano Meza)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match51′ Instituto retake the lead (1-2)
During the match65′ Instituto go 2 goals up (1-3)
During the match80′ last goal, Instituto

What it changes

In this league, “Independiente or draw” goes from 73.5% to 72.7% success rate, over 99 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Apertura - Group A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes