Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Friendlies · World

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

USA

3–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 2–0

Mexico

What Janus-12 said

71%

Draw or Mexico

77% success over 30 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 29 %

A prediction at 71 % fails 29 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Mexico

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 03:00announced on 01/10/2026, 2 days before kick-off

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Mexico71%lost
- Mexico finished with ten men: sent off in the 67th minute, 23 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: USA scored in the 84th minute.

What happened

During the match

During the match28′ opening goal, USA (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match62′ USA go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match67′ sending-off, Mexico (M. Chavez Garcia)
During the match84′ last goal, USA

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Mexico” goes from 76.7% to 74.2% success rate, over 31 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

USA on the left, Mexico on the right.

First half

28'Goal · J. Hall
Yellow card · L. Romo35'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · J. Gallardo ⇄ M. Chavez Garcia46'
Substitution · L. Romo ⇄ L. Chavez46'
62'Goal · C. Sullivan
64'Yellow card · T. Adams
65'Substitution · J. Hall ⇄ J. Ellis
65'Substitution · C. Sullivan ⇄ Y. Musah
Substitution · S. Sandoval ⇄ A. Fidalgo66'
Substitution · I. Reyes ⇄ I. Violante66'
Red card · M. Chavez Garcia67'
68'Yellow card · S. Berhalter
Substitution · S. Gimenez ⇄ A. Gonzalez72'
Substitution · R. Alvarado ⇄ E. del Villar81'
Substitution · E. Lira ⇄ O. Vargas81'
82'Substitution · G. Reyna ⇄ P. Miller
82'Substitution · S. Berhalter ⇄ B. Raines
84'Goal · M. Tillman
88'Substitution · M. Tillman ⇄ M. Albert

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Mexico71%lost
- Mexico finished with ten men: sent off in the 67th minute, 23 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: USA scored in the 84th minute.

What happened

During the match

During the match28′ opening goal, USA (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match62′ USA go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match67′ sending-off, Mexico (M. Chavez Garcia)
During the match84′ last goal, USA

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Mexico” goes from 76.7% to 74.2% success rate, over 31 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes