Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

FA WSL · England

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 4 October at 16:30. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 14:30.

Change noted on 09/09.

Manchester City W

4–2full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 3–1

Arsenal W

What Janus-12 said

75%

Manchester City W or Arsenal W

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Manchester City W or Arsenal W

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 16:30announced on 20/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

56% success over 27 matches in this league
62%✓

Super League Women

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City W	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Chelsea W	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	London City Lionesses W	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	3	1	1	+8	10
5	Everton W	5	3	0	2	0	9
6	Liverpool W	5	2	1	2	+3	7
7	Manchester United W	5	2	1	2	-4	7
8	Crystal Palace W	5	1	3	1	-6	6
9	Brighton W	5	1	2	2	+1	5
10	Arsenal W	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	West Ham W	5	1	0	4	-6	3
12	Aston Villa W	5	0	3	2	-7	3
13	Birmingham City W	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	0	0	5	-13	0

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Manchester City W or Arsenal W75%held
Draw or Arsenal W ahead at half-time62%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 43′ Arsenal W, 45′ Manchester City W.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableManchester City W 1st, Arsenal W 10th (Super League Women)

During the match

During the match43′ opening goal, Arsenal W (0-1)
During the match45′ equaliser, Manchester City W (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match49′ Arsenal W retake the lead (1-2)
During the match63′ equaliser, Manchester City W (2-2)
During the match72′ turnaround, Manchester City W go ahead (3-2)
During the match84′ turnaround, Manchester City W go ahead (4-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Manchester City W or Arsenal W” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Manchester City W on the left, Arsenal W on the right.

First half

Goal · Lisa Baum43'
45+1'Goal · Lauren Hemp (assist : Niamh Charles)
Substitution · Mariona Caldentey ⇄ Caitlin Foord45+3'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

Goal · Alessia Russo49'
62'Substitution · Carlotta Wamser ⇄ Iman Beney
62'Substitution · Bethany Mead ⇄ Mary Fowler
62'Substitution · Niamh Charles ⇄ Kerstin·Casparij
63'Goal · Kerstin·Casparij (assist : Lauren Hemp)
Substitution · Georgia Stanway ⇄ Stina Blackstenius68'
Substitution · Lisa Baum ⇄ Olivia Smith68'
70'Substitution · Samantha Coffey ⇄ Laura Blindkilde Brown
72'Goal · Lauren Hemp (assist : Yui Hasegawa)
Substitution · Emily Fox ⇄ Smilla Holmberg81'
Substitution · Ona Batlle ⇄ Selina Cerci81'
Yellow card · Olivia Smith82'
84'Goal · Khadija Shaw (assist : Aoba Fujino)
90+2'Substitution · Aoba Fujino ⇄ Grace Clinton

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Manchester City W or Arsenal W75%held
Draw or Arsenal W ahead at half-time62%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 43′ Arsenal W, 45′ Manchester City W.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableManchester City W 1st, Arsenal W 10th (Super League Women)

During the match

During the match43′ opening goal, Arsenal W (0-1)
During the match45′ equaliser, Manchester City W (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match49′ Arsenal W retake the lead (1-2)
During the match63′ equaliser, Manchester City W (2-2)
During the match72′ turnaround, Manchester City W go ahead (3-2)
During the match84′ turnaround, Manchester City W go ahead (4-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Manchester City W or Arsenal W” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Super League Women

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes