Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Piratas

4–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 3–0

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

What Janus-12 said

80%

Piratas or draw

80% success over 55 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Piratas or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 02:00announced on 20/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

49% success over 55 matches in this league
55%✓

Primera A: Apertura

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros UDG	11	7	2	2	+11	23
2	Monarcas	11	7	1	3	+9	22
3	CA La Paz	11	6	2	3	+11	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Durango	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Tapatío	10	4	2	4	+2	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	0	13
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	CDS Tampico Madero	11	3	2	6	-7	11
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	-14	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	-7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	2	0	8	-21	6

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Piratas or draw80%held
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca played 53 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 37th minute.
- Piratas took the lead in the 20th minute and never let it go.
Piratas to win55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePiratas 5th, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14th (Primera A: Apertura)

During the match

During the match20′ opening goal, Piratas (1-0)
During the match37′ sending-off, Alebrijes de Oaxaca (A. Tecpanecatl)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match74′ Piratas go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Piratas

What it changes

In this league, “Piratas or draw” goes from 80% to 80.4% success rate, over 56 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Piratas on the left, Alebrijes de Oaxaca on the right.

First half

Yellow card · A. Hernandez19'
20'Goal · D. Lajud Martinez
Red card · A. Tecpanecatl37'
Yellow card · K. Alvarez45+3'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · J. Bustos ⇄ J. Alaniz46'
Substitution · Andrey Marcos ⇄ D. Martinez46'
Substitution · E. Sanchez ⇄ S. Gallinar46'
Yellow card · J. Alaniz47'
Substitution · I. Barreda ⇄ B. Fadika54'
74'Goal · D. Lajud Martinez
75'Substitution · D. Lajud Martinez ⇄ I. Doumbouya
75'Substitution · C. Fernandez ⇄ D. Sanchez
79'Goal · G. Lopez (assist : I. Doumbouya)
Substitution · A. Hernandez ⇄ A. Justo80'
84'Substitution · B. Figueroa ⇄ A. Enciso
84'Substitution · J. Gamboa ⇄ E. Ochoa
88'Substitution · R. Gonzalez ⇄ U. Garcia
90+6'Goal · U. Garcia (assist : E. Ochoa)

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Piratas or draw80%held
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca played 53 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 37th minute.
- Piratas took the lead in the 20th minute and never let it go.
Piratas to win55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePiratas 5th, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14th (Primera A: Apertura)

During the match

During the match20′ opening goal, Piratas (1-0)
During the match37′ sending-off, Alebrijes de Oaxaca (A. Tecpanecatl)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match74′ Piratas go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Piratas

What it changes

In this league, “Piratas or draw” goes from 80% to 80.4% success rate, over 56 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primera A: Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes