Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Segunda División · Spain

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Sunday 4 October at 13:00. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 16:00.

Change noted on 24/09.

Sociedad B

2–3full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 0–3

Granada

What Janus-12 said

85%

Under 4.5 goals

87% success over 77 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 15 %

A prediction at 85 % fails 15 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 13:00announced on 20/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 76 matches in this league
73%✗
74% success over 77 matches in this league
72%✓
70% success over 77 matches in this league
73%✗
53% success over 76 matches in this league
52%✗

Segunda

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SD Eibar	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Almería	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijón	8	4	1	3	0	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Oviedo	8	3	2	3	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Leganés	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Real Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Celta B	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Cádiz	8	1	4	3	+1	7
20	Andorra	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	-11	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	-10	1

What we announced

1/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%lost
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Sociedad B or draw73%lost
- Sociedad B finished with ten men: sent off in the 64th minute, 26 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Granada scored in the 90th minute.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
Under 3.5 goals73%lost
Under 2.5 goals52%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSociedad B 16th, Granada 9th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match28′ opening goal, Sociedad B (1-0)
During the match29′ Sociedad B go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match64′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Jon Balda)
During the match69′ Granada come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match90′ turnaround, Granada go ahead (2-3)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jorge Pascual (Granada)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 87% to 85.9% success rate, over 78 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Sociedad B on the left, Granada on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Diego Hormigo11'
28'Goal · Gorka Gorosabel (assist : Lander Astiazarán)
29'Goal · Gorka Carrera Zarranz (assist : Dani Diaz)
Yellow card · Benedikt Gimber35'
Substitution · Chinaza Onouha ⇄ Sergio Rodelas Pintor45'
Substitution · Diego Hormigo ⇄ Pedro Alemañ Serna45'
Substitution · Benedikt Gimber ⇄ Mario Jiménez Gambín45'
Substitution · Ángelo García ⇄ Diego Varela Pampín45'

Half-time2 – 0

Second half

56'Yellow card · Jon Garro
Penalty goal · José Manuel Arnáiz63'
64'VAR: Red card cancelled · Jon Balda
66'Yellow card · Jon Balda
66'Substitution · Dani Diaz ⇄ Alex Lebarbier
Goal · José Manuel Arnáiz69'
69'Substitution · Ibai Aguirre ⇄ Jon Eceizabarrena
69'Substitution · Iker Ropero ⇄ Unax Larrañaga
72'Yellow card · Alex Lebarbier
81'Substitution · Tomy Carbonell ⇄ Joan Oleaga
81'Substitution · Iker Calderon ⇄ Unax Agote
Substitution · José Manuel Arnáiz ⇄ Jorge Pascual84'
Goal · Jorge Pascual90+3'

What we announced

1/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%lost
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Sociedad B or draw73%lost
- Sociedad B finished with ten men: sent off in the 64th minute, 26 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Granada scored in the 90th minute.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
Under 3.5 goals73%lost
Under 2.5 goals52%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSociedad B 16th, Granada 9th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match28′ opening goal, Sociedad B (1-0)
During the match29′ Sociedad B go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match64′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Jon Balda)
During the match69′ Granada come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match90′ turnaround, Granada go ahead (2-3)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jorge Pascual (Granada)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 87% to 85.9% success rate, over 78 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Segunda

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes