Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Segunda División · Spain

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 4 October at 17:30. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 16:00.

Change noted on 24/09.

Las Palmas

2–2full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 1–0

Real Valladolid

What Janus-12 said

90%

Under 4.5 goals

85% success over 79 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 17:30announced on 20/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 78 matches in this league
78%✓
75% success over 79 matches in this league
71%✓
68% success over 79 matches in this league
77%✗
51% success over 78 matches in this league
55%✗
44% success over 79 matches in this league
51%✗

Segunda

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SD Eibar	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Almería	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijón	8	4	1	3	0	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Oviedo	8	3	2	3	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Leganés	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Real Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Celta B	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Cádiz	8	1	4	3	+1	7
20	Andorra	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	-11	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	-10	1

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%held
- The two teams managed only 11 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
Las Palmas or draw78%held
- Las Palmas took control early: opening goal in the 5th minute.
Over 1.5 goals71%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 5th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals77%lost
Under 2.5 goals55%lost
Las Palmas to win51%lost
- Las Palmas chased the score almost all match: Real Valladolid scored as early as the 10th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLas Palmas 11th, Real Valladolid 14th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Las Palmas (1-0)
During the match10′ equaliser, Real Valladolid (1-1)
During the match26′ turnaround, Real Valladolid go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match54′ equaliser, Las Palmas (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 84.8% to 85% success rate, over 80 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Las Palmas on the left, Real Valladolid on the right.

First half

5'Goal · Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi (assist : Iván Jaime)
Goal · Juan Miguel Latasa (assist : Víctor Fernández)10'
Goal · Julien Ponceau (assist : Víctor Fernández)26'
Yellow card · Mathis Lachuer35'
45'Yellow card · Iván Jaime

Half-time1 – 2

Second half

54'Goal · Elías Romero (assist : Jesé Rodríguez)
Substitution · Mathis Lachuer ⇄ Kaj de Rooij63'
67'Substitution · Elías Romero ⇄ Manu Fuster
72'Substitution · Jesé Rodríguez ⇄ Jefte Betancor Sanchez
72'Substitution · Andrés Rodríguez Martínez ⇄ Adrián Rodríguez del Rosario
Substitution · Iván Garriel ⇄ Carlos Clerc77'
Substitution · Adrian Arnu ⇄ Victor Barbera77'
Substitution · Julien Ponceau ⇄ Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda77'
Yellow card · Francisco Escriba Segura77'
Yellow card · Víctor Fernández78'
Yellow card · Kaj de Rooij82'
Substitution · Víctor Fernández ⇄ Yeray Cabanzón82'
88'Substitution · Iván Jaime ⇄ Ivan Medina
Yellow card · Yeray Cabanzón90'
90+2'Yellow card · Ivan Medina
90+4'Yellow card · Giovanni Bonfanti

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%held
- The two teams managed only 11 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
Las Palmas or draw78%held
- Las Palmas took control early: opening goal in the 5th minute.
Over 1.5 goals71%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 5th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals77%lost
Under 2.5 goals55%lost
Las Palmas to win51%lost
- Las Palmas chased the score almost all match: Real Valladolid scored as early as the 10th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLas Palmas 11th, Real Valladolid 14th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Las Palmas (1-0)
During the match10′ equaliser, Real Valladolid (1-1)
During the match26′ turnaround, Real Valladolid go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match54′ equaliser, Las Palmas (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 84.8% to 85% success rate, over 80 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Segunda

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes