Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Tuesday, 6 October 2026

Scotland

1–2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–2

Slovenia

What Janus-12 said

76%

Scotland or draw

83% success over 42 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 24 %

A prediction at 76 % fails 24 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Scotland or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 06/10, 23:30.

Sealed on 06/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 5 days before kick-off

League B - Group A

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Slovenia	3	1	1	1	+1	4
3	Scotland	3	1	1	1	-1	4
4	FYR Macedonia	3	0	0	3	-7	0

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Scotland or draw76%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Scotland had 12 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableScotland 3rd, Slovenia 2nd (League B - Group A)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Scotland (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match56′ equaliser, Slovenia (1-1)
During the match71′ turnaround, Slovenia go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Scotland or draw” goes from 83.3% to 81.4% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Scotland on the left, Slovenia on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Erik Janža30'
31'Goal · Ryan Christie (assist : Oliver McBurnie)
44'Yellow card · John McGinn

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Yellow card · David Zec54'
Goal · Aljosa Matko (assist : Danijel Sturm)56'
66'Substitution · Oliver McBurnie ⇄ Kieron Bowie
66'Substitution · Stephen Welsh ⇄ Aaron Hickey
68'Yellow card · Luis Binks
Goal · Danijel Sturm (assist : Aljosa Matko)71'
72'Substitution · Ryan Christie ⇄ Josh Mcpake
73'Substitution · Ben Gannon-Doak ⇄ Findlay Curtis
Substitution · Zan Vipotnik ⇄ Žan Celar79'
Yellow card · Mark Zabukovnik85'
87'Substitution · John McGinn ⇄ Robbie Ure
Substitution · Aljosa Matko ⇄ Srđan Kuzmić89'
Yellow card · Žan Celar90+2'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Scotland or draw76%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Scotland had 12 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableScotland 3rd, Slovenia 2nd (League B - Group A)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Scotland (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match56′ equaliser, Slovenia (1-1)
During the match71′ turnaround, Slovenia go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Scotland or draw” goes from 83.3% to 81.4% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League B - Group A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes