Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Tuesday, 6 October 2026

Luxembourg

0–2full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 0–0

Bulgaria

What Janus-12 said

75%

Luxembourg or draw

83% success over 42 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 25 %

A prediction at 75 % fails 25 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Luxembourg or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 06/10, 23:30.

Sealed on 06/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 5 days before kick-off

League C - Group D

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Iceland	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Estonia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
3	Luxembourg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
4	Bulgaria	3	0	1	2	-4	1

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Luxembourg or draw75%lost
- Luxembourg chased the score almost all match: Bulgaria scored as early as the 19th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Luxembourg had 18 shots against 13, for 0 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLuxembourg 3rd, Bulgaria 4th (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match19′ opening goal, Bulgaria (0-1)
During the match34′ Bulgaria go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Luxembourg or draw” goes from 83.3% to 81.4% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Luxembourg on the left, Bulgaria on the right.

First half

Goal · Kristiyan Balov (assist : Emil Tsenov)19'
Yellow card · Georgi Rusev31'
Goal · Atanas Iliev (assist : Georgi Rusev)34'
Yellow card · Stefan Velkov41'
45'Substitution · Anthony Moris ⇄ Tiago Pereira Cardoso
45'Substitution · jayson videira ⇄ Aiman Dardari
45'Substitution · Enzo dos Santos ⇄ Mathias Olesen

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

Substitution · Georgi Rusev ⇄ P. Panayotov50'
Yellow card · Yoan Stoyanov51'
Substitution · Kristiyan Balov ⇄ Stanislav Ivanov66'
Substitution · Atanas Iliev ⇄ Vladimir Nikolov66'
67'Substitution · J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz ⇄ Timothé Rupil
78'Substitution · Eric Veiga ⇄ Sebastien Thill
81'Yellow card · Dirk Carlson
Substitution · Martin Minchev ⇄ Kristian Dimitrov83'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Luxembourg or draw75%lost
- Luxembourg chased the score almost all match: Bulgaria scored as early as the 19th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Luxembourg had 18 shots against 13, for 0 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLuxembourg 3rd, Bulgaria 4th (League C - Group D)

During the match

During the match19′ opening goal, Bulgaria (0-1)
During the match34′ Bulgaria go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Luxembourg or draw” goes from 83.3% to 81.4% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League C - Group D

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes