Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Tuesday, 6 October 2026

Croatia

1–2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–2

Spain

What Janus-12 said

90%

Draw or Spain

83% success over 42 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Spain

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 06/10, 23:30.

Sealed on 06/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 5 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

52% success over 42 matches in this league
73%✓

League A - Group C

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff	Pts
1	Spain	3	3	0	+6	9
2	England	3	2	1	+8	6
3	Croatia	3	1	2	-9	3
4	Czechia	3	0	3	-5	0

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Spain90%held
- Croatia played 11 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 79th minute.
Spain to win73%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCroatia 3rd, Spain 1st (League A - Group C)

During the match

During the match17′ opening goal, Croatia (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Spain (1-1)
Line-up61′ the goal came off the bench: Mikel Merino (Spain)
During the match79′ sending-off, Croatia (Ivan Perišić)
During the match88′ turnaround, Spain go ahead (1-2)
Line-up88′ the goal came off the bench: Mikel Merino (Spain)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Spain” goes from 83.3% to 83.7% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Croatia on the left, Spain on the right.

First half

14'Yellow card · Slaven Bilic
17'Goal · Ivan Perišić
22'Yellow card · Ivan Perišić
Substitution · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez ⇄ Mikel Merino45'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Goal · Mikel Merino (assist : Daniel Olmo Carvajal)61'
65'Yellow card · Luka Modrić
65'Substitution · Igor Matanovic ⇄ Dion Drena Beljo
66'Substitution · Luka Modrić ⇄ Petar Sučić
Yellow card · Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante66'
Substitution · Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante ⇄ Martín Zubimendi71'
Substitution · Daniel Olmo Carvajal ⇄ Fermín López71'
71'Substitution · Nikola Vlašić ⇄ Martin Baturina
Substitution · Lamine Yamal ⇄ Víctor Muñoz78'
79'Red card · Ivan Perišić
Substitution · Pedri ⇄ Yeremy Pino87'
88'Substitution · Mateo Kovačić ⇄ Mario Pašalić
Goal · Mikel Merino (assist : Martín Zubimendi)88'
Yellow card · Víctor Muñoz90+2'

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Spain90%held
- Croatia played 11 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 79th minute.
Spain to win73%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCroatia 3rd, Spain 1st (League A - Group C)

During the match

During the match17′ opening goal, Croatia (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Spain (1-1)
Line-up61′ the goal came off the bench: Mikel Merino (Spain)
During the match79′ sending-off, Croatia (Ivan Perišić)
During the match88′ turnaround, Spain go ahead (1-2)
Line-up88′ the goal came off the bench: Mikel Merino (Spain)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Spain” goes from 83.3% to 83.7% success rate, over 43 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,806 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group C

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes