Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Monday, 5 October 2026

Ukraine

1–2full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–2

Hungary

What Janus-12 said

73%

Ukraine or draw

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 27 %

A prediction at 73 % fails 27 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Ukraine or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/10, 20:00.

Sealed on 05/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 4 days before kick-off

League B - Group B

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Hungary	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	-3	4
4	Georgia	4	0	2	2	-2	2

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ukraine or draw73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Hungary scored in the 85th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ukraine had 17 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableUkraine 3rd, Hungary 2nd (League B - Group B)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ opening goal, Hungary (0-1)
During the match83′ equaliser, Ukraine (1-1)
During the match85′ Hungary retake the lead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Ukraine or draw” goes from 82.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Ukraine on the left, Hungary on the right.

First half

20'Yellow card · Egor Nazaryna

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

Goal · Milan Tóth (assist : Milan Vitális)52'
Yellow card · Dániel Lukács55'
60'Substitution · Matviy Ponomarenko ⇄ Roman Yaremchuk
60'Substitution · Vladyslav Veleten ⇄ Maksym Khlan
60'Substitution · Igor Krasnopir ⇄ Vladyslav Vanat
Substitution · Dániel Lukács ⇄ Tamás Szűcs61'
Substitution · Alex Tóth ⇄ Gabor Jurek62'
70'Substitution · Oleg Ocheretko ⇄ Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Substitution · András Schäfer ⇄ Rajmund Tóth72'
Substitution · Milan Tóth ⇄ Jozsef Szalai72'
Yellow card · Rajmund Tóth78'
83'Goal · Roman Yaremchuk (assist : Oleksandr Pikhalyonok)
Goal · Mark Csinger (assist : Rajmund Tóth)85'
86'Substitution · Egor Nazaryna ⇄ Ivan Varfolomeev
Substitution · Dominik Szoboszlai ⇄ Áron Csongvai87'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Ukraine or draw73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Hungary scored in the 85th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Ukraine had 17 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableUkraine 3rd, Hungary 2nd (League B - Group B)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ opening goal, Hungary (0-1)
During the match83′ equaliser, Ukraine (1-1)
During the match85′ Hungary retake the lead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Ukraine or draw” goes from 82.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League B - Group B

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes