Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Monday, 5 October 2026

Italy

3–1full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 2–1

Türkiye

What Janus-12 said

84%

Italy or draw

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Italy or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/10, 20:00.

Sealed on 05/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 4 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

56% success over 34 matches in this league
62%✓

League A - Group A

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	France	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	-9	0

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Italy or draw84%held
- Italy took the lead in the 64th minute and never let it go.
- Italy took control early: opening goal in the 26th minute.
Italy to win62%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableItaly 2nd, Türkiye 4th (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the match26′ opening goal, Italy (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Türkiye (1-1)
During the match64′ Italy retake the lead (2-1)
During the match87′ Italy go 2 goals up (3-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Italy or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Italy on the left, Türkiye on the right.

First half

26'Goal · Gianluca Scamacca
42'Yellow card · Gianluca Scamacca

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

47'Yellow card · Matteo Ruggeri
Yellow card · Zeki Çelik55'
55'Substitution · Giovanni Di Lorenzo ⇄ Michael Kayode
56'Substitution · Matteo Ruggeri ⇄ Riccardo Calafiori
56'Substitution · Gianluca Scamacca ⇄ Pio Esposito
Goal · Aral Simsir (assist : Eren Elmalı)61'
64'Goal · Riccardo Calafiori (assist : Nicolò Barella)
70'Substitution · Nicolò Barella ⇄ Sandro Tonali
Substitution · İrfan Can Kahveci ⇄ Bartuğ Elmaz70'
Substitution · Aral Simsir ⇄ Ilhan Fakili70'
Substitution · Ismail Yüksek ⇄ Kerem Aktürkoğlu79'
Yellow card · Abdulkerim Bardakçı81'
84'Substitution · Antonio Vergara ⇄ Davide Frattesi
87'Goal · Pio Esposito (assist : Alessandro Romano)
Substitution · Yunus Akgün ⇄ Deniz Gül88'
Substitution · Ferdi Kadıoğlu ⇄ Oğuz Aydın88'

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Italy or draw84%held
- Italy took the lead in the 64th minute and never let it go.
- Italy took control early: opening goal in the 26th minute.
Italy to win62%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableItaly 2nd, Türkiye 4th (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the match26′ opening goal, Italy (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Türkiye (1-1)
During the match64′ Italy retake the lead (2-1)
During the match87′ Italy go 2 goals up (3-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Italy or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes