Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Monday, 5 October 2026

France

4–1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 4–0

Belgium

What Janus-12 said

78%

France or draw

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: France or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/10, 20:00.

Sealed on 05/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 4 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

56% success over 34 matches in this league
57%✓

League A - Group A

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	France	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	-9	0

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

France or draw78%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for France against 2.
France to win57%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFrance 1st, Belgium 3rd (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the match35′ opening goal, Belgium (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match77′ equaliser, France (1-1)
During the match81′ turnaround, France go ahead (2-1)
During the match88′ turnaround, France go ahead (3-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, France go ahead (4-1)

What it changes

In this league, “France or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

France on the left, Belgium on the right.

First half

Goal · Dodi Lukebakio (assist : Romeo Lavia)35'

Half-time0 – 1

Second half

Yellow card · Romeo Lavia57'
60'Substitution · Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Michael Olise
60'Substitution · Maghnes Akliouche ⇄ Rayan Cherki
61'Substitution · Manu Koné ⇄ Lucas Da Cunha
69'Yellow card · Maxence Lacroix
Substitution · Dodi Lukebakio ⇄ Mika Godts70'
Substitution · Romelu Lukaku ⇄ Charles De Ketelaere70'
72'Substitution · Bradley Barcola ⇄ Désiré Doue
Yellow card · Mark van Bommel73'
Yellow card · Joaquin Seys75'
77'Goal · Désiré Doue (assist : Lucas Da Cunha)
81'Goal · Rayan Cherki (assist : Michael Olise)
Substitution · Romeo Lavia ⇄ Mandela Keita87'
Substitution · Diego Moreira ⇄ Loïs Openda87'
Substitution · Hans Vanaken ⇄ Leandro Trossard87'
88'Substitution · Eduardo Camavinga ⇄ Adrien Rabiot
88'Goal · Michael Olise (assist : Désiré Doue)
90+1'Goal · Michael Olise (assist : Désiré Doue)

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

France or draw78%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for France against 2.
France to win57%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFrance 1st, Belgium 3rd (League A - Group A)

During the match

During the match35′ opening goal, Belgium (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match77′ equaliser, France (1-1)
During the match81′ turnaround, France go ahead (2-1)
During the match88′ turnaround, France go ahead (3-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, France go ahead (4-1)

What it changes

In this league, “France or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,745 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes