Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Portugal

2–1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–0

Norway

What Janus-12 said

81%

Portugal or draw

79% success over 28 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Portugal or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 19:45announced on 01/10/2026, 3 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

54% success over 28 matches in this league
61%✓

League A - Group D

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff	Pts
1	Portugal	4	4	0	+5	12
2	Denmark	4	2	2	0	6
3	Wales	4	1	3	-3	3
4	Norway	4	1	3	-2	3

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Portugal or draw81%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 7 shots on target for Portugal against 3.
Portugal to win61%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePortugal 1st, Norway 4th (League A - Group D)

During the match

During the match36′ opening goal, Norway (0-1)
During the match38′ equaliser, Portugal (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match79′ turnaround, Portugal go ahead (2-1)
During the match86′ sending-off, Portugal (Francisco Conceicao)

What it changes

In this league, “Portugal or draw” goes from 78.6% to 79.3% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,587 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Portugal on the left, Norway on the right.

First half

12'Yellow card · João Cancelo
Goal · Kristoffer Ajer (assist : Martin Odegaard)36'
38'Goal · João Cancelo (assist : Nuno Mendes)

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

63'Substitution · João Cancelo ⇄ Diogo Dalot
63'Substitution · João Palhinha ⇄ Rúben Neves
Substitution · Erling Haaland ⇄ Jörgen Strand Larsen67'
Substitution · Antonio Nusa ⇄ Oscar Bobb74'
79'Goal · Gonçalo Ramos (assist : Joao Felix)
86'Yellow card · Francisco Conceicao
86'Red card · Francisco Conceicao
86'Substitution · Vitinha ⇄ Bernardo Silva
Substitution · Patrick Berg ⇄ Thelo Aasgaard87'
88'Yellow card · Bruno Fernandes
90+2'Substitution · Joao Felix ⇄ Nuno Tavares
90+2'Substitution · Bruno Fernandes ⇄ Francisco Trincão

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Portugal or draw81%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 7 shots on target for Portugal against 3.
Portugal to win61%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePortugal 1st, Norway 4th (League A - Group D)

During the match

During the match36′ opening goal, Norway (0-1)
During the match38′ equaliser, Portugal (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match79′ turnaround, Portugal go ahead (2-1)
During the match86′ sending-off, Portugal (Francisco Conceicao)

What it changes

In this league, “Portugal or draw” goes from 78.6% to 79.3% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,587 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League A - Group D

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes