Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

UEFA Nations League · World

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Azerbaijan

1–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–0

Lithuania

What Janus-12 said

73%

Azerbaijan or draw

76% success over 25 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 3 bookmakers

Bet offered: Azerbaijan or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 14:00announced on 01/10/2026, 2 days before kick-off

League D - Group B

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Azerbaijan	3	1	2	0	+1	5
2	Lithuania	3	1	1	1	+1	4
3	Liechtenstein	2	0	1	1	-2	1

What we announced

1/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Azerbaijan or draw73%held
- Azerbaijan held on with ten men for 37 minutes (sent off in the 53rd minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Azerbaijan took the lead in the 25th minute and never let it go.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAzerbaijan 1st, Lithuania 2nd (League D - Group B)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Azerbaijan (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match53′ sending-off, Azerbaijan (Abdulakh khaybulaev)
During the match90′ sending-off, Lithuania (A. Kučys)

What it changes

In this league, “Azerbaijan or draw” goes from 76% to 76.9% success rate, over 26 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Azerbaijan on the left, Lithuania on the right.

First half

25'Goal · Abdulakh khaybulaev (assist : Tural Bayramov)
33'Yellow card · Abdulakh khaybulaev
Yellow card · Modestas Vorobjovas43'
45'Substitution · Tural Bayramov ⇄ Vüsal İsgändärli
Substitution · Modestas Vorobjovas ⇄ Lukas Michelbrink45'
Substitution · Edgaras Utkus ⇄ Kipras Kazukolovas45'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

51'Yellow card · Ayxan Abbasov
53'VAR: Red card cancelled · Abdulakh khaybulaev
Yellow card · Artur Dolžnikov54'
57'Yellow card · Vüsal İsgändärli
64'Substitution · Abdulakh khaybulaev ⇄ Renat Dadaşov
64'Substitution · Oruc Məmmədov ⇄ Emil Safarov
Substitution · Adrian Lickunas ⇄ Motiejus Burba67'
Substitution · Vykintas Slivka ⇄ Eligijus Jankauskas68'
80'Substitution · Aleksey Isaev ⇄ C. Nuriyev
Substitution · Rokas Lekiatas ⇄ Ignas Venckus83'
88'Substitution · Tellur Mutallimov ⇄ Elvin Badalov
90+2'Yellow card · Elvin Badalov
Yellow card · Eligijus Jankauskas90+7'
Red card · A. Kučys90+7'

What we announced

1/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Azerbaijan or draw73%held
- Azerbaijan held on with ten men for 37 minutes (sent off in the 53rd minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Azerbaijan took the lead in the 25th minute and never let it go.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAzerbaijan 1st, Lithuania 2nd (League D - Group B)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Azerbaijan (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match53′ sending-off, Azerbaijan (Abdulakh khaybulaev)
During the match90′ sending-off, Lithuania (A. Kučys)

What it changes

In this league, “Azerbaijan or draw” goes from 76% to 76.9% success rate, over 26 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,492 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

League D - Group B

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes