Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera Nacional · Argentina

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 4 October at 21:30. Originally planned for Saturday 3 October at 21:00.

Change noted on 26/09.

Atl. Rafaela

2–3full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–2

Atlanta

What Janus-12 said

94%

Under 4.5 goals

98% success over 137 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 6 %

A prediction at 94 % fails 6 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 2 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

1xBet
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 21:30announced on 20/09/2026, 14 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

88% success over 137 matches in this league
85%✗
79% success over 141 matches in this league
73%✗
64% success over 137 matches in this league
68%✗
55% success over 136 matches in this league
58%✓

Group 2

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	32	15	13	4	+17	58
2	Temperley	32	15	11	6	+12	56
3	Atlanta	32	17	4	11	+8	55
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	+8	54
5	Midland	32	13	9	10	+8	48
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	13	9	10	+4	48
7	Deportivo Maipu	32	13	8	11	+8	47
8	Colegiales	32	13	7	12	+1	46
9	San Martin S.J.	32	12	9	11	+2	45
10	San Martin T.	32	10	13	9	+3	43
11	Atl. Rafaela	32	11	9	12	-3	42
12	Quilmes	32	10	9	13	+3	39
13	Almagro	32	10	8	14	-10	38
14	Agropecuario	32	9	10	13	-9	37
15	Nueva Chicago	32	9	9	14	-7	36
16	Patronato	32	6	16	10	-5	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	32	9	6	17	-9	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	32	5	8	19	-31	23

What we announced

1/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals94%lost
Under 3.5 goals85%lost
Atl. Rafaela or draw73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Atlanta scored in the 81st minute.
- The opposing bench made the difference: the goal in the 81st minute came from a substitute.
Under 2.5 goals68%lost
Over 1.5 goals58%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtl. Rafaela 11th, Atlanta 3rd (Group 2)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Atl. Rafaela (1-0)
During the match41′ equaliser, Atlanta (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match71′ turnaround, Atlanta go ahead (1-2)
During the match81′ turnaround, Atlanta go ahead (1-3)
Line-up81′ the goal came off the bench: L. Galeano (Atlanta)
During the match90′ last goal, Atl. Rafaela
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: M. Quiroga (Atl. Rafaela)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 97.8% to 97.1% success rate, over 138 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,587 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Atl. Rafaela on the left, Atlanta on the right.

First half

Yellow card · A. Quintana1'
25'Own goal · M. Garcia
Goal · F. Alvarez (assist : A. Quintana)41'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

52'Yellow card · J. Bonifacio
54'Yellow card · F. Jourdan
57'Yellow card · A. Solveyra
61'Substitution · F. Jourdan ⇄ M. Moreno
61'Substitution · A. Rodriguez ⇄ M. Pardo
Substitution · D. Arguello ⇄ R. Sosa65'
Substitution · I. Rodriguez ⇄ A. Morales65'
Goal · B. Rivero (assist : A. Morales)71'
78'Yellow card · M. Moreno
79'Substitution · L. Flores ⇄ F. Soloa
79'Substitution · L. Moscoloni ⇄ J. Cavallaro
79'Substitution · J. Capurro ⇄ M. Quiroga
Substitution · F. Alvarez ⇄ L. Galeano81'
Substitution · B. Rivero ⇄ C. Bernardi81'
Goal · L. Galeano (assist : T. Rojas)81'
Substitution · A. Morales ⇄ G. Mendoza88'
90'Goal · M. Quiroga (assist : L. Albertengo)

What we announced

1/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals94%lost
Under 3.5 goals85%lost
Atl. Rafaela or draw73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Atlanta scored in the 81st minute.
- The opposing bench made the difference: the goal in the 81st minute came from a substitute.
Under 2.5 goals68%lost
Over 1.5 goals58%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtl. Rafaela 11th, Atlanta 3rd (Group 2)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Atl. Rafaela (1-0)
During the match41′ equaliser, Atlanta (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match71′ turnaround, Atlanta go ahead (1-2)
During the match81′ turnaround, Atlanta go ahead (1-3)
Line-up81′ the goal came off the bench: L. Galeano (Atlanta)
During the match90′ last goal, Atl. Rafaela
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: M. Quiroga (Atl. Rafaela)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 97.8% to 97.1% success rate, over 138 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,587 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Group 2

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes