Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

USL Championship · USA

full time

Sunday, 4 October 2026

Orange County SC

1–2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–2

Monterey Bay

What Janus-12 said

83%

Orange County SC or draw

76% success over 99 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 17 %

A prediction at 83 % fails 17 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Orange County SC or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 22:00.

Sealed on 04/10, 03:00announced on 20/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

48% success over 99 matches in this league
62%✗

USL Championship

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive	27	14	5	8	+11	47
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	15	7	5	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	13	8	6	+13	47
2	New Mexico United	27	13	7	7	+9	46
3	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	+21	46
3	Sacramento Republic	27	11	11	5	+12	44
4	Lexington	27	13	4	10	+16	43
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	+3	39
5	Tulsa Roughnecks	27	11	9	7	+7	42
5	Rhode Island	26	11	5	10	+10	38
6	Colorado Springs	27	11	7	9	+3	40
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	+1	38
7	Louisville City	26	10	7	9	+1	37
7	Orange County SC	27	10	9	8	-6	39
8	San Antonio	27	9	11	7	0	38
8	Miami FC	28	9	9	10	-7	36
9	Las Vegas Lights	27	10	6	11	-3	36
9	Indy Eleven	27	9	7	11	0	34
10	Loudoun United	26	4	12	10	-12	24
10	Oakland Roots	27	8	10	9	-2	34
11	Phoenix Rising	27	8	9	10	-4	33
11	Birmingham Legion	26	4	11	11	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	4	6	17	-28	18
12	Monterey Bay	27	5	6	16	-18	21
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	-41	14

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Orange County SC or draw83%lost
- Orange County SC finished with ten men: sent off in the 45th minute, 45 minutes a man down.
Orange County SC to win62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableOrange County SC 7th, Monterey Bay 12th (USL Championship)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Orange County SC (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match45′ sending-off, Orange County SC (T. Brewitt)
During the match61′ equaliser, Monterey Bay (1-1)
During the match65′ turnaround, Monterey Bay go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Orange County SC or draw” goes from 75.8% to 75% success rate, over 100 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Orange County SC on the left, Monterey Bay on the right.

First half

5'Penalty goal · O. Sylla
Yellow card · R. Nakamura32'
45+1'Red card · T. Brewitt

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · D. Otoya ⇄ W. Leggett46'
46'Substitution · J. Lindsey ⇄ N. Benalcazar
Penalty goal · S. Lletget61'
62'Substitution · K. Partida ⇄ S. Kelly
Substitution · R. Nakamura ⇄ Judson64'
Goal · Z. Farnsworth (assist : S. Lletget)65'
68'Substitution · M. Palomino ⇄ B. Cambridge
68'Substitution · L. MacKinnon ⇄ Y. Bazini
Yellow card · Q. Elliot74'
Substitution · J. Garcia ⇄ J. Belmar75'
80'Yellow card · C. Hegardt
80'Substitution · M. War ⇄ E. Zubak
Yellow card · W. Leggett81'
Substitution · S. Ritchie ⇄ A. Villasana89'
Substitution · I. Paul ⇄ F. Canete89'
Yellow card · N. Ross90+3'

What we announced

0/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Orange County SC or draw83%lost
- Orange County SC finished with ten men: sent off in the 45th minute, 45 minutes a man down.
Orange County SC to win62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableOrange County SC 7th, Monterey Bay 12th (USL Championship)

During the match

During the match5′ opening goal, Orange County SC (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match45′ sending-off, Orange County SC (T. Brewitt)
During the match61′ equaliser, Monterey Bay (1-1)
During the match65′ turnaround, Monterey Bay go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Orange County SC or draw” goes from 75.8% to 75% success rate, over 100 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,361 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

USL Championship

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes